Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement by December 31, 2026?

Tick: 0.01
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2027-01-01
Rewards: 20 min size · 6.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.15. down 0.03 over the period, from 0.18. Range 0.15 to 0.29. 170 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.19	40	40
0.26	61	101
0.38	11	113
0.39	13	126
0.40	15	141
0.73	7	148
0.74	80	228
0.93	8	236
0.94	17	253
0.96	25	278
0.98	58	336
0.99	203	539

Spread0.07Mid0.15

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.12	267	267
0.11	73	339
0.10	21	360
0.07	65	425
0.06	7	433
0.05	41	474
0.04	750	1,224
0.03	1,258	2,481
0.02	1,925	4,406
0.01	5,693	10,099

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.88	267	267
0.89	73	339
0.90	21	360
0.93	65	425
0.94	7	433
0.95	41	474
0.96	750	1,224
0.97	1,258	2,481
0.98	1,925	4,406
0.99	5,693	10,099

Spread0.07Mid0.84

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.81	40	40
0.74	61	101
0.62	11	113
0.61	13	126
0.60	15	141
0.27	7	148
0.26	80	228
0.07	8	236
0.06	17	253
0.04	25	278
0.02	58	336
0.01	203	539

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
AlphaGooo	Yes	640
0xd0F86659dc92DC80302aCE04fbf4E93d74696b50-1757755172744	Yes	500
folioquant	Yes	216
youtube-trader	Yes	143.43
Dr.PNL	Yes	122.66
AJSV	Yes	120.18
from00	Yes	100
stakezilla	Yes	66.67
wheatherman	Yes	60
pootytherewardfarmer	Yes	49.35
mskl	Yes	46.88
tradetosurvive1	Yes	43.59
wallet-account-test	Yes	20
midprice-monk	Yes	20
Fihdrzgdd	Yes	20
73f44919CE0143F0e9a05F531f7C8B15c8a483a0.	Yes	15.15
0x08ef9Bb12E694e305D5E0cf1761874cE902aE466-1758127915454	Yes	14.44
Shekel	Yes	10
0x6bb9Bb92a74c37a447F09E3697370d7B443aF64a-1778889145261	Yes	10
0x5C08dc0212Cf96b3Fa845aCd6B6024b39d31ef0b-1769055815871	Yes	6.25

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
02:32:15	BUY	No	0.78	20	$15.60
02:07:14	SELL	Yes	0.17	12	$2.07
06:14:03	BUY	Yes	0.4099999984	12	$5.00
06:12:01	SELL	Yes	0.13	15	$1.97
05:43:02	BUY	Yes	0.3299999815	15	$5.00
14:14:57	BUY	Yes	0.16	16	$2.51
07:42:51	SELL	Yes	0.1	8	$0.80
07:41:54	BUY	Yes	0.25	8	$2.00
07:04:07	SELL	Yes	0.1	8	$0.77
03:34:59	BUY	Yes	0.2599999896	8	$2.00
02:22:16	SELL	Yes	0.22	20	$4.40
16:12:04	BUY	Yes	0.16	8	$1.28
08:00:20	BUY	Yes	0.12	10	$1.20
08:00:19	BUY	Yes	0.11	20	$2.20
07:25:46	BUY	No	0.83	20	$16.60
17:33:24	SELL	Yes	0.15	20	$3.00
17:33:21	SELL	Yes	0.15	20	$3.00
11:37:21	BUY	No	0.81	20	$16.20
10:41:32	BUY	Yes	0.15	12	$1.80
10:35:39	BUY	No	0.83	20	$16.60
10:35:39	BUY	No	0.83	20	$16.60
10:35:38	BUY	No	0.83	25	$20.75
10:35:38	BUY	No	0.83	60	$49.80
10:35:38	BUY	No	0.82	197	$161.63
23:02:08	SELL	Yes	0.19	30	$5.70