Will Anthropic's frontier output token price be at or above $25 in 2026?

Tick: 0.01
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2027-01-01
Resolves by: https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing
Rewards: 40 min size · 4.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.56. down 0.17 over the period, from 0.73. Range 0.27 to 0.73. 169 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.57	280	280
0.58	100	380
0.70	80	460
0.74	80	540
0.82	20	560
0.90	41	601
0.95	10	611
0.96	21	632
0.97	20	652
0.98	100	752
0.99	37	789

Spread0.01Mid0.56

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.56	240	240
0.55	120	360
0.53	50	410
0.48	50	460
0.45	50	510
0.34	50	560
0.33	390	950
0.27	40	990
0.26	20	1,010
0.13	20	1,030
0.10	41	1,071
0.04	15	1,086

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.44	240	240
0.45	120	360
0.47	50	410
0.52	50	460
0.55	50	510
0.66	50	560
0.67	390	950
0.73	40	990
0.74	20	1,010
0.87	20	1,030
0.90	41	1,071
0.96	15	1,086

Spread0.01Mid0.43

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.43	280	280
0.42	100	380
0.30	80	460
0.26	80	540
0.18	20	560
0.10	41	601
0.05	10	611
0.04	21	632
0.03	20	652
0.02	100	752
0.01	37	789

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
hithitfar	Yes	190
Fihdrzgdd	Yes	100
lissartter	Yes	40
tradetosurvive1	Yes	40
Scoopdewhoop	Yes	25.08
LSMRPM	Yes	20.41
CosmicCedar	Yes	20
GuyFromTinder	Yes	9
Started-with-20-USD	No	229
galhammerman	No	80
AJSV	No	75.08
2B9S	No	40
tianqizhizi	No	20

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
01:55:50	BUY	Yes	0.58	40	$23.20
01:01:41	BUY	Yes	0.63	40	$25.20
01:01:39	BUY	Yes	0.63	190	$119.70
20:42:11	BUY	Yes	0.629999937	5	$3.20
20:42:02	BUY	Yes	0.63	5	$3.15
20:42:02	BUY	Yes	0.63	5	$3.15
20:41:08	BUY	Yes	0.63	5	$3.15
20:41:08	BUY	Yes	0.63	5	$3.15
20:37:00	BUY	No	0.4	80	$32.00
12:28:08	BUY	No	0.38	20	$7.60
13:14:05	SELL	No	0.48	120	$57.60
01:37:11	SELL	Yes	0.49	40	$19.60
20:14:59	SELL	Yes	0.46	40	$18.40
19:54:56	SELL	Yes	0.46	7	$3.16
19:35:57	SELL	Yes	0.44	33	$14.57
19:35:51	BUY	No	0.4211461318	349	$146.98
10:58:44	BUY	Yes	0.42	20	$8.40
08:05:26	BUY	Yes	0.4263575681	20	$8.70