CosmicCedar
0xdacf9f8d0341fa3770fae5c7ccd9dcfed23e3c74
- Realised P&L
- $19.7k
- Volume
- $2.89M
- Markets traded
- 5,227
- Open portfolio
- $25.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded5,227
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration41.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.9kat 0.010Will Naomi Osaka advance to the Quarterfinals in Women's Singles at the 2026 US Open?
- +$5.8kat 0.535Will Beef win the 2025 Internet Invitational?
- +$4.3kat 0.001Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
- +$3.9kat 0.006Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in November?
- +$3.7kat 0.026Will John Harbaugh be the next Giants Head Coach?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 04:56 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.9550432277 | $39.77 |
| 09-17 04:50 | Will Jaume Martinez Vich advance to the Quarterfinals in Men's Singles at the 2026 Veolia Arizona Open? | BUY | 0.45 | $9.00 |
| 09-17 04:50 | Will Andrei Daescu advance to the Quarterfinals in Men's Singles at the 2026 Veolia Arizona Open? | BUY | 0.43 | $8.60 |
| 09-17 04:39 | Will Jaume Martinez Vich / Christopher Haworth advance to the Round of 16 in Men's Doubles at the 2026 Veolia Arizona Open? | BUY | 0.8851923077 | $184.12 |
| 09-17 04:23 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.82 | $32.80 |
| 09-17 04:23 | Will there be no next Claude Opus model release by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $4.80 |
| 09-17 04:20 | Will Tatyana Ali be eliminated in week 1 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35? | BUY | 0.99 | $49.08 |
| 09-17 04:17 | Will Boston Red Sox win the 2026 AL East title? | BUY | 0.9988129625 | $391.43 |
| 09-17 02:07 | Will Sarah Jane Nader be eliminated in week 1 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35? | BUY | 0.99 | $143.10 |
| 09-17 02:03 | Will Tatyana Ali be eliminated in week 1 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35? | BUY | 0.99 | $33.48 |
| 09-17 02:03 | Will Giada De Laurentiis be eliminated in week 1 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35? | BUY | 0.9877940491 | $148.40 |
| 09-17 02:03 | Will Sarah Jane Nader be eliminated in week 1 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35? | BUY | 0.99 | $33.48 |
| 09-17 02:02 | Will Ciara Miller be eliminated in week 1 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35? | BUY | 0.99 | $82.57 |
| 09-17 02:02 | Will Julia Stiles be eliminated in week 1 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35? | BUY | 0.99 | $82.57 |
| 09-17 02:01 | Will Maura Higgins be eliminated in week 1 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35? | BUY | 0.99 | $82.57 |