LSMRPM
0x800a263aa67e239ae288850a60edcffa0075d22e
- Realised P&L
- $261.97
- Volume
- $2.2k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $368.68
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar12.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration31.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.743 | 0.965 | $176.56 | +$40.56 |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? · Yes | 0.205 | 0.510 | $111.84 | +$66.84 |
| Will Anthropic's frontier output token price be at or above $30 in 2026? · Yes | 0.412 | 0.615 | $61.50 | +$20.30 |
| Will Anthropic's frontier output token price be at or above $25 in 2026? · Yes | 0.426 | 0.605 | $12.35 | +$3.65 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? · Yes | 0.388 | 0.125 | $6.44 | −$13.56 |
| Will Trump say "Russia" or "Russian" during remarks at NASA? · Yes | 0.343 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$67.00 |
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? · No | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$31.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$106.27at 0.176Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
- +$104.08at 0.490Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
- +$93.32at 0.520Will Trump say "China" or "Chinese" during remarks at NASA?
- +$24.20at 0.806US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by September 30?
- +$11.93at 0.258Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 08:44 | Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7429360776 | $136.00 |
| 09-26 08:10 | Will Anthropic's frontier output token price be at or above $30 in 2026? | BUY | 0.41 | $8.20 |
| 09-26 08:05 | Will Anthropic's frontier output token price be at or above $25 in 2026? | BUY | 0.4263575681 | $8.70 |
| 09-26 08:04 | Will Anthropic's frontier output token price be at or above $30 in 2026? | BUY | 0.412495 | $33.00 |
| 09-13 13:38 | US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by September 30? | BUY | 0.8 | $100.00 |
| 08-25 13:00 | Will Trump say "China" or "Chinese" during remarks at NASA? | BUY | 0.4966887417 | $15.00 |
| 08-25 12:59 | Will Trump say "Russia" or "Russian" during remarks at NASA? | BUY | 0.3454935554 | $23.00 |
| 08-25 12:58 | Will Trump say "China" or "Chinese" during remarks at NASA? | BUY | 0.4831034483 | $14.01 |
| 08-25 12:55 | Will Trump say "Russia" or "Russian" during remarks at NASA? | BUY | 0.3414634118 | $44.00 |
| 08-25 12:54 | Will Trump say "China" or "Chinese" during remarks at NASA? | BUY | 0.5182537641 | $70.00 |
| 08-02 21:47 | Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | BUY | 0.205211723 | $45.00 |
| 07-11 02:59 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? | BUY | 0.3881243863 | $80.00 |
| 06-15 07:08 | Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? | BUY | 0.4899999991 | $100.00 |
| 06-15 06:44 | Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? | SELL | 0.376899163 | $37.83 |
| 06-02 15:00 | Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? | BUY | 0.258055116 | $25.90 |