PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

LSMRPM

0x800a263aa67e239ae288850a60edcffa0075d22e

Realised P&L
$261.97
Volume
$2.2k
Markets traded
12
Open portfolio
$368.68

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar12.2%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
BlockerMarkets traded12
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
CautionProfit concentration31.3% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample5 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration47.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.7430.965$176.56+$40.56
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? · Yes0.2050.510$111.84+$66.84
Will Anthropic's frontier output token price be at or above $30 in 2026? · Yes0.4120.615$61.50+$20.30
Will Anthropic's frontier output token price be at or above $25 in 2026? · Yes0.4260.605$12.35+$3.65
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? · Yes0.3880.125$6.44−$13.56
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Russian" during remarks at NASA? · Yes0.3430.000$0.00−$67.00
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? · No0.3000.000$0.00−$31.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-19 08:44Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by December 31, 2026?BUY0.7429360776$136.00
09-26 08:10Will Anthropic's frontier output token price be at or above $30 in 2026?BUY0.41$8.20
09-26 08:05Will Anthropic's frontier output token price be at or above $25 in 2026?BUY0.4263575681$8.70
09-26 08:04Will Anthropic's frontier output token price be at or above $30 in 2026?BUY0.412495$33.00
09-13 13:38US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by September 30?BUY0.8$100.00
08-25 13:00Will Trump say "China" or "Chinese" during remarks at NASA?BUY0.4966887417$15.00
08-25 12:59Will Trump say "Russia" or "Russian" during remarks at NASA?BUY0.3454935554$23.00
08-25 12:58Will Trump say "China" or "Chinese" during remarks at NASA?BUY0.4831034483$14.01
08-25 12:55Will Trump say "Russia" or "Russian" during remarks at NASA?BUY0.3414634118$44.00
08-25 12:54Will Trump say "China" or "Chinese" during remarks at NASA?BUY0.5182537641$70.00
08-02 21:47Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?BUY0.205211723$45.00
07-11 02:59Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?BUY0.3881243863$80.00
06-15 07:08Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?BUY0.4899999991$100.00
06-15 06:44Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June?SELL0.376899163$37.83
06-02 15:00Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June?BUY0.258055116$25.90