PolyBot

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Will global temperature increase by less than 1.30ºC in October 2026?

Tick
0.001
Min order
5
Fees
0.05 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.25 · takers only
Ends
2026-12-02
Resolves by
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.051. up 0.012 over the period, from 0.039. Range 0.029 to 0.097. 146 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.0982929
0.099102131
0.18920151
0.190125276
0.20020296
0.548125421
0.54910431
0.55088519
0.5515524
0.565100624
0.56650674
0.577236910

Spread0.093Mid0.052

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.005148148
0.004250398
0.00388486
0.0017651,251

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.995148148
0.996250398
0.99788486
0.9997651,251

Spread0.093Mid0.949

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.9022929
0.901102131
0.81120151
0.810125276
0.80020296
0.452125421
0.45110431
0.45088519
0.4495524
0.435100624
0.43450674
0.423236910

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
TheWindKnowsmyNameYes550.1
xtxpleasecallmeYes281.04
Dr.PNLYes204.39
AMAM13Yes105
pootytherewardfarmerYes69.59
HaradwaithYes40.1
2B9SYes40
VonVonaghYes29
29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da.Yes20
0x0da7…78d7Yes14
2200FCA4fE3bAb3706522A8F4436B7656911474f.Yes1.91
0x34dBc406881A24B82F4b138e09169d9a004B1B63-1777004802209No1,002.53
balerinacapuchinaNo285.69
0xa5ef…2966No66.91

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
17:50:25BUYNo0.95124$22.96
12:22:04BUYNo0.9942$1.90
03:42:28BUYNo0.97359$57.78
21:18:46BUYYes0.05136$1.82
13:09:14BUYNo0.979201$196.78
18:48:17BUYNo0.97340$38.51
18:47:53BUYNo0.97236$34.71
18:20:48BUYNo0.973205$199.47
15:55:24BUYYes0.0821$1.68
01:38:39BUYNo0.9249$8.32
14:02:42BUYYes0.0765$0.38
21:00:06BUYNo0.995$4.95
16:55:52BUYYes0.01481$1.13
01:50:38SELLNo0.9980$79.20
17:05:35SELLYes0.0330$0.90
17:02:09BUYYes0.0581$4.05
16:58:03SELLYes0.0320$0.60
10:09:53BUYNo0.8346532474509$424.60
23:22:35SELLYes0.1924$4.56
18:35:10SELLYes0.220$4.00
17:50:04BUYNo0.7764$49.28
17:50:00BUYNo0.76217$164.68
17:39:01BUYNo0.765$3.80