Dario Amodei arrested by December 31?

Tick: 0.001
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2026-12-31

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.034. down 0.004 over the period, from 0.038. Range 0.033 to 0.042. 155 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.046	196	196
0.049	2,000	2,196
0.051	219	2,415
0.296	16	2,431
0.297	10	2,441
0.299	7	2,448
0.500	520	2,968
0.800	650	3,618
0.907	6	3,624
0.908	692	4,316
0.950	10	4,326
0.960	13,000	17,326

Spread0.024Mid0.034

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.022	40	40
0.021	1,342	1,382
0.020	1,292	2,674
0.013	20	2,694
0.012	1,111	3,805
0.011	500	4,305
0.006	56	4,361
0.005	101	4,462
0.004	3,300	7,761
0.003	2,056	9,817
0.002	6,813	16,630
0.001	40,319	56,949

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.978	40	40
0.979	1,342	1,382
0.980	1,292	2,674
0.987	20	2,694
0.988	1,111	3,805
0.989	500	4,305
0.994	56	4,361
0.995	101	4,462
0.996	3,300	7,761
0.997	2,056	9,817
0.998	6,813	16,630
0.999	40,319	56,949

Spread0.024Mid0.966

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.954	196	196
0.951	2,000	2,196
0.949	219	2,415
0.704	16	2,431
0.703	10	2,441
0.701	7	2,448
0.500	520	2,968
0.200	650	3,618
0.093	6	3,624
0.092	692	4,316
0.050	10	4,326
0.040	13,000	17,326

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
DREAMBIG.	Yes	521.37
LornaPredicts	Yes	300
thecaricature	Yes	196.49
qcp14	Yes	174.74
title1	Yes	50.93
rocky42001	Yes	26.25
Elias.Thornwell	Yes	23.91
niglette	Yes	20.3
tweetmaster	Yes	19
AJSV	Yes	15.59
Welcome2026	Yes	8.66
0xa39Fe164c54030B5f3Dc3D93Ac550a8Bed83fBDB-1768116899785	Yes	5
b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.	Yes	3.39
0xe33cfdbA2Db3eeFaE6D75a38c52361978fEBeCE4-1782331651545	No	992.06
GTOrski1	No	271.65
aviato	No	75
RewardsNinja	No	18.75
Zebu7803	No	2.29
EmberPhantom2K	No	2.25
doesntlisten	No	1.27

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
10:48:17	BUY	No	0.9779999947	2	$2.20
10:01:45	BUY	No	0.9769999912	1	$1.11
08:37:20	SELL	No	0.954	29	$27.21
08:30:02	SELL	No	0.961533377	61	$58.77
05:06:31	BUY	No	0.958	100	$95.80
05:06:10	BUY	No	0.957	20	$18.71
05:05:58	BUY	No	0.957	60	$57.42
05:05:13	BUY	No	0.956	2	$2.10
05:04:57	BUY	No	0.956	30	$28.68
02:28:21	BUY	No	0.9561146667	19	$17.93
02:28:01	BUY	Yes	0.049	125	$6.13
06:52:15	BUY	No	0.9589996752	2	$2.20
12:41:24	SELL	No	0.955	300	$286.47
12:41:22	SELL	No	0.956	100	$95.60
12:41:04	SELL	No	0.962	461	$443.61
15:50:49	BUY	No	0.965	8	$8.17
19:22:00	BUY	No	0.964	5	$4.82
11:21:24	BUY	No	0.963	11	$10.32
08:23:08	SELL	No	0.9588076923	1	$1.00
08:23:07	SELL	No	0.959	1	$1.00
08:23:07	SELL	No	0.959	1	$1.00
08:23:05	SELL	No	0.959	1	$1.00
08:23:05	SELL	No	0.959	1	$1.00
08:17:31	BUY	No	0.962999557	1	$1.00
08:17:29	BUY	No	0.962999557	1	$1.00