RewardsNinja
0xd5beaefade3d43c861d9031387c265cd709e0e42
- Realised P&L
- $-4.1k
- Volume
- $338.7k
- Markets traded
- 443
- Open portfolio
- $5.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded443
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration12.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$574.13at 0.867Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
- +$303.61at 0.931US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
- +$200.49at 0.665US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
- +$194.00at 0.973US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?
- +$191.25at 0.965US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 14:17 | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announce a presidential run before 2027? | SELL | 0.95 | $12.48 |
| 08-04 13:30 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? | BUY | 0.96 | $85.38 |
| 08-04 10:16 | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9564513527 | $170.76 |
| 08-04 10:16 | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.953 | $11.91 |
| 08-04 02:32 | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.961 | $0.07 |
| 08-04 02:32 | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.961 | $1.91 |
| 08-04 02:32 | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.961 | $0.08 |
| 08-04 02:32 | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.961 | $0.77 |
| 08-03 19:47 | Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.981 | $18.04 |
| 08-03 18:16 | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.966 | $124.13 |
| 08-03 18:16 | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.966 | $0.74 |
| 08-03 14:56 | Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | SELL | 0.998 | $0.52 |
| 08-03 14:41 | Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record? | SELL | 0.9754816956 | $20.25 |
| 08-03 13:40 | Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.981 | $2.64 |
| 08-03 13:16 | Iran leadership change by September 30? | SELL | 0.05 | $1.93 |