Zebu7803
0xaec70a955f14fab835b659799504aad0d49ae953
- Realised P&L
- $-0.27
- Volume
- $124.6k
- Markets traded
- 29
- Open portfolio
- $2.21
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded29
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample27 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)81.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dario Amodei arrested by December 31? · No | 0.959 | 0.966 | $2.21 | +$0.01 |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? · No | 0.988 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.28 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.19at 0.956Will James Solomon win the 2025 Jersey City mayoral election?
- +$0.18at 0.930Will another movie gross most in 2024?
- +$0.13at 0.958Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?
- +$0.13at 0.962Jones-Aspinall date announced before February?
- +$0.08at 0.982Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-27 06:52 | Dario Amodei arrested by December 31? | BUY | 0.9589996752 | $2.20 |
| 06-04 09:52 | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BUY | 0.985 | $3.13 |
| 06-04 09:51 | Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.99 | $4.13 |
| 05-12 16:37 | Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9579999986 | $4.00 |
| 04-05 02:35 | Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in April? | BUY | 0.9819999983 | $4.50 |
| 03-19 04:02 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9879999982 | $4.44 |
| 03-19 04:01 | Xi Jinping out by June 30? | SELL | 0.965 | $4.45 |
| 02-26 02:15 | Xi Jinping out by June 30? | BUY | 0.9659998233 | $4.46 |
| 02-26 02:14 | Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025? | SELL | 0.985 | $4.45 |
| 01-11 11:46 | Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025? | BUY | 0.9889998007 | $4.48 |
| 12-15 09:56 | Will China blockade Taiwan by December 31? | BUY | 0.995 | $4.46 |
| 12-09 13:19 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $10-$11 on the final day of trading of the week of Dec 8 – Dec 12? | BUY | 0.99 | $4.42 |
| 12-02 09:07 | Will James Solomon win the 2025 Jersey City mayoral election? | BUY | 0.9559999946 | $4.22 |
| 12-02 09:06 | Will Democrats win five elections in Nov? | SELL | 0.994 | $4.22 |
| 11-05 08:53 | Will Democrats win five elections in Nov? | BUY | 0.9979997727 | $4.25 |