niglette
0x23ed02fdee555e7a7790f9ce79efccebf9dfaebc
- Realised P&L
- $-4.8k
- Volume
- $1.46M
- Markets traded
- 4,200
- Open portfolio
- $598.20
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded4,200
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration29.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration6.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$849.68at 0.010Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?
- +$811.37at 0.010Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on March 23?
- +$740.79at 0.032Will the DHS shutdown last 70 days or more?
- +$429.34at 0.010Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting?
- +$333.81at 0.010Will the Patek Index hit $107,000 (HIGH) by April 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 21:07 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.392 | $30.28 |
| 07-19 21:07 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19? | SELL | 0.0602104973 | $32.17 |
| 07-19 20:47 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.389 | $37.09 |
| 07-19 19:35 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19? | BUY | 0.235 | $48.96 |
| 07-19 19:33 | Will a trailer for Avengers: Doomsday premiere at SDCC 2026? | SELL | 0.12 | $15.60 |
| 07-19 19:33 | Will Studio Ghibli announce a new project at SDCC 2026? | SELL | 0.21 | $27.30 |
| 07-19 19:33 | Will Apple TV announce a new project at SDCC 2026? | SELL | 0.36 | $46.80 |
| 07-19 19:12 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19? | BUY | 0.238942638 | $77.90 |
| 07-15 03:10 | Will Prime Video announce a new project at SDCC 2026? | SELL | 0.83 | $4.15 |
| 07-15 03:08 | Will a trailer for Marvel's Wolverine premiere at SDCC 2026? | SELL | 0.029162963 | $1.57 |
| 07-15 03:07 | Will Prime Video announce a new project at SDCC 2026? | SELL | 0.85 | $4.25 |
| 07-15 03:03 | Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by July 30? | SELL | 0.032 | $0.54 |
| 07-15 03:02 | Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.17 | $3.40 |
| 07-15 03:01 | Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of July 25? | SELL | 0.06 | $3.24 |
| 07-15 03:01 | Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? | SELL | 0.7 | $39.20 |