EmberPhantom2K
0x20bc3006d4ef4d54968870e015cabb41f0fd25d1
- Realised P&L
- $-9.20
- Volume
- $129.4k
- Markets traded
- 36
- Open portfolio
- $2.17
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded36
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample34 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)73.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dario Amodei arrested by December 31? · No | 0.978 | 0.966 | $2.17 | −$0.03 |
| Semtech (SMTC) Up or Down After Earnings? · Down | 0.960 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.06 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.12at 0.980Will Meta (META) finish week of March 9 above $610?
- +$0.10at 0.983Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,900 on February 9?
- +$0.10at 0.985Trump sentenced to prison in NY case before inauguration?
- +$0.07at 0.950Will the US ban sharing deepfake nudes in 2024?
- +$0.05at 0.989Will Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 10:48 | Dario Amodei arrested by December 31? | BUY | 0.9779999947 | $2.20 |
| 08-04 10:44 | Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by December 31? | SELL | 0.08 | $0.41 |
| 07-26 12:20 | Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by December 31? | BUY | 0.7893762713 | $4.05 |
| 07-26 12:19 | Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.978 | $5.26 |
| 06-03 06:59 | Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.9809999981 | $5.28 |
| 06-03 06:59 | New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30? | SELL | 0.981 | $4.86 |
| 05-13 13:35 | New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30? | BUY | 0.9969999996 | $4.94 |
| 05-13 13:34 | Will Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? | SELL | 0.997 | $6.11 |
| 04-08 06:42 | Will Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.988999999 | $6.07 |
| 04-08 06:41 | Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026? | SELL | 0.954 | $6.08 |
| 04-03 02:12 | Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026? | BUY | 0.9489999948 | $6.05 |
| 04-03 02:12 | Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.983 | $6.05 |
| 03-17 06:31 | Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.97999987 | $6.03 |
| 03-11 10:44 | Will Meta (META) finish week of March 9 above $610? | BUY | 0.98 | $5.91 |
| 02-09 03:36 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,900 on February 9? | BUY | 0.9829998493 | $5.81 |