PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Sign in

Traders

0xe33cfdbA2Db3eeFaE6D75a38c52361978fEBeCE4-1782331651545

0xe33cfdba2db3eefae6d75a38c52361978febece4

Realised P&L
$-150.40
Volume
$16.6k
Markets traded
8
Open portfolio
$957.83

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded8
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration54.1% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample5 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Dario Amodei arrested by December 31? · No0.9780.966$957.83$12.39
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? · Yes0.0800.000$0.00$40.00
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? · No0.7060.000$0.00$706.34

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-03 23:51GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?SELL0.0179319$8.97
07-03 00:22Dario Amodei arrested by December 31?BUY0.97$145.50
07-03 00:22Dario Amodei arrested by December 31?BUY0.98$810.15
07-03 00:22Dario Amodei arrested by December 31?BUY0.97$25.59
07-03 00:22Dario Amodei arrested by December 31?BUY0.95$8.55
07-01 00:11GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?BUY0.8$4.00
07-01 00:10GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?BUY0.12$60.00
07-01 00:00Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?BUY0.989$29.77
06-30 04:20Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?BUY0.72$520.56
06-30 04:19Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?BUY0.71$85.19
06-30 04:19Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?BUY0.65$7.15
06-30 04:19Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?BUY0.64$17.92
06-30 04:19Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?BUY0.64$75.51
06-29 14:49Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?SELL0.984$691.75
06-27 05:03Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?BUY0.8189157333$614.19