0xe33cfdbA2Db3eeFaE6D75a38c52361978fEBeCE4-1782331651545
0xe33cfdba2db3eefae6d75a38c52361978febece4
- Realised P&L
- $-150.40
- Volume
- $16.6k
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $957.83
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration54.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dario Amodei arrested by December 31? · No | 0.978 | 0.966 | $957.83 | −$12.39 |
| GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
| Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.706 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$706.34 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$357.01at 0.983Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?
- +$166.74at 0.710Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
- +$124.57at 0.819Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?
- +$11.00at 0.800GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?
- +$-51.03at 0.120GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-03 23:51 | GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026? | SELL | 0.0179319 | $8.97 |
| 07-03 00:22 | Dario Amodei arrested by December 31? | BUY | 0.97 | $145.50 |
| 07-03 00:22 | Dario Amodei arrested by December 31? | BUY | 0.98 | $810.15 |
| 07-03 00:22 | Dario Amodei arrested by December 31? | BUY | 0.97 | $25.59 |
| 07-03 00:22 | Dario Amodei arrested by December 31? | BUY | 0.95 | $8.55 |
| 07-01 00:11 | GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $4.00 |
| 07-01 00:10 | GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $60.00 |
| 07-01 00:00 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? | BUY | 0.989 | $29.77 |
| 06-30 04:20 | Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $520.56 |
| 06-30 04:19 | Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.71 | $85.19 |
| 06-30 04:19 | Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.65 | $7.15 |
| 06-30 04:19 | Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $17.92 |
| 06-30 04:19 | Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $75.51 |
| 06-29 14:49 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? | SELL | 0.984 | $691.75 |
| 06-27 05:03 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? | BUY | 0.8189157333 | $614.19 |