PolyBot

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Will Claude Opus 5.6+ debut at an output token price of at least $20 by June 30, 2027?

Tick
0.01
Min order
5
Fees
0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends
2027-07-01
Resolves by
https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing
Rewards
20 min size · 6.5¢ max spread

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.57. down 0.08 over the period, from 0.66. Range 0.35 to 0.71. 168 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.618080
0.6220100
0.7830130
0.7933163
0.8137200
0.9050250
0.9410260
0.9596356
0.965361
0.9830391
0.9921412

Spread0.07Mid0.57

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.548080
0.5344124
0.4920144
0.1654198
0.1450248
0.1164312
0.1021333
0.027340
0.0176416

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.468080
0.4744124
0.5120144
0.8454198
0.8650248
0.8964312
0.9021333
0.987340
0.9976416

Spread0.07Mid0.43

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.398080
0.3820100
0.2230130
0.2133163
0.1937200
0.1050250
0.0610260
0.0596356
0.045361
0.0230391
0.0121412

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
KiruaTradingYes164.21
GuyFromTinderYes39.95
AJSVYes20.67
SmartBoyBillyYes20
2B9SNo41.88
CarabaoNo40
0xd2d3E93862A6033d9648ef915B1525865c777bb3-1789898420454No40
pootytherewardfarmerNo23
botticinoNo20
lolkeNo20
cigarettesNo20
P9CJC4FYHWNo20
balthazarNo19.95

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
00:53:44BUYNo0.3820$7.60
00:45:16BUYYes0.5520$11.00
23:39:36BUYYes0.3820$7.60
17:54:55BUYYes0.4920$9.80
04:49:37BUYNo0.3540$14.00
03:40:04BUYYes0.4620$9.20
21:42:30BUYNo0.3720$7.40
21:09:19BUYNo0.3440$13.60
17:51:33BUYYes0.4820$9.60
01:46:14BUYNo0.3420$6.80
01:43:59BUYNo0.3920$7.80
00:45:33BUYYes0.4820$9.60
18:42:42BUYNo0.3660$21.60
18:33:53BUYYes0.5920$11.80
17:32:45BUYYes0.5320$10.60
12:11:51SELLNo0.4520$9.00
11:50:05BUYYes0.5720$11.40
10:44:18BUYYes0.5920$11.80
01:45:36BUYNo0.2920$5.80
23:10:26BUYYes0.5220$10.40
21:46:35BUYYes0.5820$11.60
20:33:58BUYYes0.4220$8.40
18:48:45BUYYes0.420$8.00
13:40:58BUYNo0.2320$4.60
13:33:40SELLNo0.3220$6.40