Will the next Grok model (4.8+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?

Tick: 0.01
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2027-07-01
Resolves by: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Rewards: 20 min size · 4.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.12. down 0.38 over the period, from 0.49. Range 0.11 to 0.49. 42 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.12	90	90
0.47	17	107
0.48	30	137
0.49	56	194
0.73	48	242
0.74	80	322
0.86	113	434
0.87	613	1,047
0.91	6	1,053
0.92	20	1,073
0.96	25	1,098
0.97	6	1,104

Spread0.01Mid0.11

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.11	20	20
0.10	21	41
0.04	14	55
0.03	149	204
0.02	180	384
0.01	34	417

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.89	20	20
0.90	21	41
0.96	14	55
0.97	149	204
0.98	180	384
0.99	34	417

Spread0.01Mid0.89

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.88	90	90
0.53	17	107
0.52	30	137
0.51	56	194
0.27	48	242
0.26	80	322
0.14	113	434
0.13	613	1,047
0.09	6	1,053
0.08	20	1,073
0.04	25	1,098
0.03	6	1,104

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
0xbB979F0fDc1DE93Bbc7d7AA85a8f9d8B4d73D6b9-1785774674355	Yes	92.34
GuyFromTinder	Yes	39.36
pad6	Yes	20
maomao228	Yes	20
AJSV	Yes	18.78
Sithmaul	Yes	10.5
KiruaTrading	No	100
robertoo	No	60.98
RewardsProduction	No	20
Pitosyflautas	No	20

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
07:53:23	BUY	Yes	0.1199999961	20	$2.44
03:03:37	SELL	No	0.88	5	$4.40
02:52:26	BUY	No	0.71	5	$3.55
02:48:07	BUY	No	0.53	20	$10.60
02:36:23	BUY	Yes	0.0899999973	18	$1.66
01:42:25	BUY	No	0.8199999984	61	$50.00
21:39:33	SELL	Yes	0.4	20	$8.08
21:24:37	BUY	No	0.54	20	$10.80
21:18:10	BUY	No	0.52	20	$10.40
21:15:24	BUY	No	0.515	80	$41.20
20:47:38	BUY	Yes	0.494845169	20	$10.00