Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 AR-02 House election by 5% or more?

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.07. down 0.01 over the period, from 0.09. Range 0.07 to 0.12. 168 points.

Not connected

Live

Spread0.10Mid0.07

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.02	58	58
0.01	68	126

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.98	58	58
0.99	68	126

Spread0.10Mid0.93

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl	Yes	100.8
LornaPredicts	Yes	83
pootytherewardfarmer	Yes	46
Numitus1994	Yes	40
AJSV	Yes	32.5
e46m3	Yes	23.68
GuyFromTinder	Yes	20
Dr.PNL	Yes	20
0xa5ef…2966	No	289.51
0xE85D8DDD47906a2f644908281C427c9176C84E7F-1791087052329	No	75
0x539b…c64f	No	1.45

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
16:10:32	BUY	No	0.89	5	$4.45
16:09:31	BUY	No	0.89	5	$4.45
16:08:34	BUY	No	0.89	5	$4.45
12:27:53	BUY	No	0.89	5	$4.45
12:26:52	BUY	No	0.89	5	$4.45
12:25:49	BUY	No	0.89	5	$4.45
12:24:50	BUY	No	0.89	5	$4.45
12:23:53	BUY	No	0.89	5	$4.45
12:22:50	BUY	No	0.89	5	$4.45
12:21:52	BUY	No	0.89	5	$4.45
12:20:53	BUY	No	0.89	5	$4.45
12:19:58	BUY	No	0.89	5	$4.45
12:18:55	BUY	No	0.89	5	$4.45
05:30:49	BUY	No	0.89	5	$4.45
17:47:01	BUY	Yes	0.07	5	$0.35
04:49:47	BUY	No	0.93	1	$1.35
04:49:42	BUY	No	0.93	13	$11.90
04:49:42	BUY	No	0.93	9	$8.60
15:57:42	BUY	No	0.89	13	$11.57
15:57:36	SELL	No	0.89	20	$17.80
05:40:27	SELL	Yes	0.09	20	$1.80
23:00:10	BUY	No	0.9	20	$18.00
23:00:04	BUY	No	0.88	20	$17.60
22:59:58	SELL	Yes	0.12	20	$2.40
22:59:55	SELL	Yes	0.12	20	$2.40