e46m3
0x4f1d5ae26fc31472966e951af3183308736d8de2
- Realised P&L
- $1.48M
- Volume
- $17.88M
- Markets traded
- 44,190
- Open portfolio
- $46.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar8.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded44,190
- Far too many to mirror. This is automated flow across the whole venue, not a set of considered positions — copying it means rebuilding their infrastructure, at which point you are not copying anyone.
- ClearProfit concentration28.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$62.7kat 0.016Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- +$45.6kat 0.250Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$44.8kat 0.162Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$41.8kat 0.010Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- +$39.0kat 0.987Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 21:06 | Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on September 18? | BUY | 0.88 | $4.40 |
| 09-17 21:06 | Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 18? | BUY | 0.84 | $4.20 |
| 09-17 21:05 | Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the October interest rate announcement? | BUY | 0.999 | $26.96 |
| 09-17 21:05 | Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the October interest rate announcement? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.74 |
| 09-17 21:05 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on September 18? | BUY | 0.998 | $32.68 |
| 09-17 21:05 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on September 18? | BUY | 0.87 | $28.49 |
| 09-17 21:03 | Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $7.20 |
| 09-17 21:03 | Will the Riemann Hypothesis be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | BUY | 0.996 | $7.97 |
| 09-17 20:55 | Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | BUY | 0.84 | $8.18 |
| 09-17 20:55 | Will the Riemann Hypothesis be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | BUY | 0.996 | $9.70 |
| 09-17 20:52 | Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | BUY | 0.58 | $2.90 |
| 09-17 20:52 | Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | BUY | 0.953 | $4.76 |
| 09-17 20:49 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon be less than 1,500,000? | BUY | 0.996 | $19.95 |
| 09-17 20:49 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon be between 1,700,000 and 1,800,000? | BUY | 0.96 | $19.23 |
| 09-17 20:49 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon be between 1,600,000 and 1,700,000? | BUY | 0.999 | $20.01 |