PolyBot

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Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% before 2027?

Tick
0.01
Min order
5
Fees
0.05 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.25 · takers only
Ends
2026-12-31
Resolves by
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026
Rewards
50 min size · 6.5¢ max spread

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.20. up 0.11 over the period, from 0.10. Range 0.08 to 0.26. 168 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.213131
0.22536
0.23841878
0.24110988
0.27611,049
0.32201,069
0.392001,269
0.40261,295
0.411601,455
0.4391,464
0.89301,494
0.90511,545

Spread0.01Mid0.21

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.20306306
0.19626932
0.181601,092
0.171201,212
0.152001,412
0.101011,513
0.07971,610
0.063741,984
0.052432,227
0.041312,359
0.031672,525
0.022502,775

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.80306306
0.81626932
0.821601,092
0.831201,212
0.852001,412
0.901011,513
0.93971,610
0.943741,984
0.952432,227
0.961312,359
0.971672,525
0.982502,775

Spread0.01Mid0.80

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.793131
0.78536
0.77841878
0.76110988
0.73611,049
0.68201,069
0.612001,269
0.60261,295
0.591601,455
0.5791,464
0.11301,494
0.10511,545

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
kastetemYes1,558.33
SuperTestsYes236.97
GotGreenWoodYes200
ethicalcryptoguyYes200
Dr.PNLYes60.95
athenacapitalYes52.63
FihdrzgddYes50
HerrieDavisYes40.5
tradetosurvive1Yes37.21
0x0174…95b0Yes26.32
0x1AF9e3D4141676Af4c6858509D71471561e00562-1761754773309Yes20
29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da.Yes20
superaiapiYes11
asdfasd11Yes10
lll918ddYes10
ddadsfYes10
sadfsadfYes10
ConsensusOfCredibleReportingYes6
reggaetonYes4.21
MajasYes3.31

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
14:04:04BUYYes0.2177$16.17
14:03:26BUYYes0.2199$20.79
08:34:50BUYYes0.192498250$48.12
08:16:08BUYYes0.1810$1.80
08:15:44SELLYes0.1626$4.24
08:15:44BUYYes0.1950$9.50
08:15:44SELLNo0.8223528858425$349.51
08:15:43BUYYes0.184354974283$15.36
08:15:43BUYYes0.1799999991133$24.00
08:15:43BUYYes0.169999998376$13.00
02:26:59BUYYes0.189999999853$10.00
19:07:12SELLNo0.82100$82.00
18:47:07BUYYes0.1530$4.50
18:47:07SELLNo0.8650$43.00
18:38:04SELLNo0.8850$44.00
18:38:03SELLNo0.8868791849103$91.39
18:38:03SELLNo0.88100$88.00
18:38:01BUYYes0.10001814750$5.01
18:38:01BUYYes0.091,558$140.25
18:38:01BUYYes0.1100$10.00
18:38:00BUYYes0.1100$10.00
15:17:31SELLYes0.07101$7.07
15:17:30SELLYes0.08101$8.08
14:53:28SELLYes0.08102$8.16
14:53:28BUYYes0.111$1.10