Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?

Tick: 0.01
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2027-01-01
Resolves by: https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing
Rewards: 20 min size · 4.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.21. down 0.05 over the period, from 0.26. Range 0.06 to 0.42. 168 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.24	1,116	1,116
0.25	220	1,336
0.26	20	1,356
0.31	15	1,371
0.74	80	1,451
0.90	21	1,472
0.93	8	1,480
0.94	20	1,500
0.95	9	1,509
0.97	20	1,529
0.98	9	1,538
0.99	5,006	6,543

Spread0.06Mid0.21

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.18	1,166	1,166
0.17	238	1,404
0.11	40	1,444
0.10	21	1,465
0.08	6	1,471
0.07	20	1,491
0.05	80	1,571
0.04	100	1,671
0.03	8	1,679
0.02	20	1,699
0.01	10	1,709

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.82	1,166	1,166
0.83	238	1,404
0.89	40	1,444
0.90	21	1,465
0.92	6	1,471
0.93	20	1,491
0.95	80	1,571
0.96	100	1,671
0.97	8	1,679
0.98	20	1,699
0.99	10	1,709

Spread0.06Mid0.79

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.76	1,116	1,116
0.75	220	1,336
0.74	20	1,356
0.69	15	1,371
0.26	80	1,451
0.10	21	1,472
0.07	8	1,480
0.06	20	1,500
0.05	9	1,509
0.03	20	1,529
0.02	9	1,538
0.01	5,006	6,543

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
balthazar	Yes	270
0x033b…5fd4	Yes	39.33
youtube-trader	Yes	18
Lordofebola	Yes	15.71
pootytherewardfarmer	Yes	12
0x8b1c…d8a9	Yes	10
ddadsf	Yes	10
tradetosurvive1	Yes	8.67
xixihaha009	Yes	6.33
omsode	No	202
AJSV	No	89.37
just-bettor	No	70
galhammerman	No	20
tiongbu	No	5
Dr.PNL	No	4.33

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
21:29:05	BUY	Yes	0.14	30	$4.20
21:25:50	BUY	Yes	0.15	40	$6.00
20:27:26	BUY	Yes	0.16	10	$1.60
19:59:44	BUY	Yes	0.14	15	$2.10
19:59:42	BUY	Yes	0.1499999959	24	$3.65
19:59:42	BUY	Yes	0.14	100	$14.00
14:36:41	SELL	No	0.84	30	$25.20
09:31:59	SELL	Yes	0.15	20	$3.00
09:31:45	SELL	Yes	0.16	20	$3.20
09:31:44	SELL	Yes	0.16	20	$3.20
08:36:14	SELL	No	0.83	1	$0.83
07:41:29	SELL	No	0.8	11	$9.06
07:33:12	BUY	Yes	0.2251063787	20	$4.60
07:33:12	BUY	Yes	0.22	20	$4.40
07:33:12	BUY	Yes	0.22	20	$4.40
06:31:41	BUY	No	0.76	20	$15.20
06:12:17	BUY	Yes	0.31	5	$1.55
06:05:20	SELL	No	0.87	19	$16.53
01:31:53	SELL	No	0.9	16	$14.70
01:31:53	SELL	No	0.9	5	$4.50
01:31:51	BUY	Yes	0.1	90	$9.00
09:11:48	SELL	Yes	0.1	10	$1.03
03:16:24	SELL	Yes	0.1	11	$1.13
20:28:21	BUY	Yes	0.09	21	$1.89
21:06:38	SELL	No	0.93	9	$8.06