PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x11111111

0x8b1cd879ca6250cd15f98653c950c25bedd6d8a9

Realised P&L
$-165.66
Volume
$61.6k
Markets traded
94
Open portfolio
$95.06

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded94
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration24.6% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration23.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31? · No0.5100.505$22.22−$0.22
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of December 2026? · Yes0.3100.310$12.40+$0.00
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30? · No0.6600.600$12.00−$1.20
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 12? · No0.5300.420$8.40−$2.20
Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher? · No0.2900.195$7.80−$3.80
Will Jahmyr Gibbs finish as a top-5 FLEX in the 2026-27 NFL season? · No0.2500.350$7.00+$2.00
Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027? · Yes0.5300.315$6.30−$4.30
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 2? · Yes0.8200.975$3.79+$0.60
Will Palmer Luckey attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2830.042$2.52−$14.48
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $40 in 2026? · Yes0.2400.210$2.10−$0.30
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? · No0.2450.050$2.00−$7.80
Will DeepSeek have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28? · Yes0.6670.600$1.89−$0.21
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by October 31? · Yes0.2900.075$1.42−$4.07
Will ByteDance have the third highest private market valuation at the end of October? · No0.2400.070$1.40−$3.40
Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 5-October 11? · No0.4000.770$1.28+$0.62

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-28 22:05Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?SELL0.23$1.51
06-28 20:26Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?SELL0.38$2.97
06-27 09:55Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?BUY0.48$9.60
06-26 22:26Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?SELL0.51$3.69
06-26 12:48Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?SELL0.4$2.03
06-26 12:43Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?SELL0.4$5.00
06-26 12:42Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?SELL0.4$2.62
06-26 12:07Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?SELL0.43$3.59
06-26 11:56Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?SELL0.43$5.00
06-26 08:06Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?SELL0.39$14.82
06-26 06:54Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?SELL0.56$7.68
06-26 05:39Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?SELL0.56$25.43
06-26 04:50Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?SELL0.65$3.24
06-26 04:49Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?SELL0.65$9.75
06-26 04:45Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?SELL0.33$6.28