0xF829E5588834F3b94d926CE7c0B93995111f91ec-1780245877615
0xf829e5588834f3b94d926ce7c0b93995111f91ec
- Realised P&L
- $28.45
- Volume
- $2.4k
- Markets traded
- 47
- Open portfolio
- $205.16
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded47
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample23 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration10.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$61.43at 0.140Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
- +$39.76at 0.205Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?
- +$6.80at 0.746Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
- +$5.87at 0.630US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
- +$3.75at 0.730Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 20:51 | Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.38 | $3.40 |
| 09-21 08:36 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.207 | $9.50 |
| 09-21 08:36 | Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 1.3%? | SELL | 0.44 | $5.06 |
| 09-04 20:54 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.49 | $9.07 |
| 08-31 20:41 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.5699999059 | $2.00 |
| 08-31 20:38 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.13 | $1.88 |
| 08-27 09:42 | Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | SELL | 0.018 | $0.77 |
| 08-27 09:42 | Will Trump endorse Likud in the 2026 Israeli Election? | SELL | 0.16 | $2.28 |
| 08-23 22:03 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.88999998 | $4.00 |
| 08-23 21:47 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.8399999664 | $10.00 |
| 08-23 21:46 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $10.00 |
| 08-06 20:40 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.4389999808 | $10.00 |
| 08-06 16:21 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.217999986 | $10.00 |
| 08-04 20:04 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999393 | $10.00 |
| 08-01 22:40 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9199999963 | $10.00 |