Yeahsingularityyah
0xee829ab99353fd36160abb9d04cf9bb95bb6fd8c
- Realised P&L
- $18.37
- Volume
- $1.7k
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $271.15
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- Not knownSettled sample0 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- ClearOpen concentration18.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.710 | $49.53 | +$19.53 |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.605 | $44.49 | −$5.51 |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? · Yes | 0.176 | 0.145 | $41.08 | −$8.92 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.140 | $39.71 | +$19.71 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? · Yes | 0.083 | 0.095 | $34.26 | +$4.26 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.241 | 0.221 | $30.88 | −$2.87 |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 80% or higher? · Yes | 0.067 | 0.069 | $20.52 | +$0.53 |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 90% or higher? · Yes | 0.092 | 0.049 | $10.68 | −$9.32 |
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 03:28 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.2409999996 | $33.75 |
| 09-12 07:45 | Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? | BUY | 0.0831844228 | $30.00 |
| 09-12 07:44 | Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? | BUY | 0.0705156457 | $20.00 |
| 09-10 23:53 | Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 90% or higher? | BUY | 0.0917705734 | $20.00 |
| 09-10 23:47 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6799999978 | $50.00 |
| 09-10 23:46 | Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | BUY | 0.4299999991 | $30.00 |
| 09-10 23:42 | Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 80% or higher? | BUY | 0.0672353324 | $20.00 |
| 09-10 23:41 | Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? | BUY | 0.1764979278 | $50.00 |