kevtp
0xdc4b06981e74fe11585438eb40f10bd79f43dbca
- Realised P&L
- $67.2k
- Volume
- $5.55M
- Markets traded
- 345
- Open portfolio
- $181.6k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded345
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.8kat 0.915US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
- +$5.2kat 0.518US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?
- +$2.8kat 0.943Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
- +$2.8kat 0.868Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June?
- +$2.7kat 0.967Netanyahu out by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 21:12 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | SELL | 0.996 | $124.50 |
| 09-23 21:12 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | SELL | 0.996 | $10.0k |
| 09-23 21:06 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.96 | $2.1k |
| 09-19 09:00 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $49.44 |
| 09-19 09:00 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.989 | $89.91 |
| 09-17 10:22 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $3.8k |
| 09-14 10:18 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.9740012967 | $225.34 |
| 09-14 10:17 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.971 | $13.32 |
| 09-13 14:54 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.982 | $37.28 |
| 09-13 14:53 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $4.7k |
| 09-13 14:49 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | BUY | 0.988 | $4.8k |
| 09-13 14:47 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.95 | $4.4k |
| 09-09 19:55 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.984 | $3.0k |
| 09-09 19:52 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.95 | $831.69 |
| 09-07 18:00 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | BUY | 0.988 | $1.3k |