PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

kevtp

0xdc4b06981e74fe11585438eb40f10bd79f43dbca

Realised P&L
$67.2k
Volume
$5.55M
Markets traded
345
Open portfolio
$181.6k

Can you copy this trader?

plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded345
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration11.0% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration21.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? · No0.9880.995$39.8k+$277.80
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · No0.9700.982$39.3k+$456.95
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · No0.9140.962$33.7k+$1.7k
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? · No0.9330.945$33.1k+$425.19
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No0.9670.975$9.7k+$75.00
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No0.8710.959$7.0k+$636.18
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? · No0.9320.963$4.8k+$156.01
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? · No0.9230.935$4.7k+$60.00
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30? · No0.9520.997$3.3k+$145.84
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · No0.7610.945$1.9k+$368.58
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? · No0.9680.997$996.50+$28.50
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.8520.935$935.00+$82.81
Will Russia invade a NATO country by September 30, 2026? · No0.9870.997$920.36+$9.47
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.8450.855$855.01+$10.01
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? · No0.6410.565$821.68−$110.89

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-23 21:12Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?SELL0.996$124.50
09-23 21:12Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?SELL0.996$10.0k
09-23 21:06Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?SELL0.96$2.1k
09-19 09:00Will Russia invade a NATO country by September 30, 2026?BUY0.99$49.44
09-19 09:00Will Russia invade a NATO country by September 30, 2026?BUY0.989$89.91
09-17 10:22Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?BUY0.95$3.8k
09-14 10:18Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?BUY0.9740012967$225.34
09-14 10:17Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?BUY0.971$13.32
09-13 14:54Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?BUY0.982$37.28
09-13 14:53Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?BUY0.94$4.7k
09-13 14:49Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?BUY0.988$4.8k
09-13 14:47Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?BUY0.95$4.4k
09-09 19:55Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?BUY0.984$3.0k
09-09 19:52Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?BUY0.95$831.69
09-07 18:00Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?BUY0.988$1.3k