betstaker
0xd3fe2e07253009268c3a6ba3507aa30a2cc82b28
- Realised P&L
- $-465.03
- Volume
- $36.2k
- Markets traded
- 605
- Open portfolio
- $3.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded605
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)24.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$86.51at 0.131Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
- +$51.98at 0.617MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
- +$43.85at 0.948US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
- +$21.85at 0.956US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
- +$19.29at 0.984Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 07:30 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.25 | $0.01 |
| 10-15 05:57 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.92 | $0.01 |
| 10-15 04:59 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | SELL | 0.093 | $0.92 |
| 10-15 04:58 | US x Yemen ceasefire continues through November 30? | SELL | 0.68 | $0.50 |
| 10-15 04:55 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.25 | $0.67 |
| 10-15 03:31 | Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? | BUY | 0.7499998867 | $3.31 |
| 10-15 02:49 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.91 | $1.96 |
| 10-15 02:13 | Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? | SELL | 0.963 | $3.22 |
| 10-15 02:11 | Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second? | SELL | 0.25 | $0.25 |
| 10-15 00:35 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | SELL | 0.41 | $4.74 |
| 10-15 00:20 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | SELL | 0.31 | $0.56 |
| 10-15 00:09 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | SELL | 0.3 | $0.53 |
| 10-14 23:03 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.22 | $0.20 |
| 10-14 22:42 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | SELL | 0.41 | $0.23 |
| 10-14 22:42 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | SELL | 0.31 | $0.27 |