PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

betstaker

0xd3fe2e07253009268c3a6ba3507aa30a2cc82b28

Realised P&L
$-465.03
Volume
$36.2k
Markets traded
605
Open portfolio
$3.9k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded605
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration44.1% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)24.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration39.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No0.8080.778$1.4k−$53.30
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.1950.222$402.07+$48.56
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.8460.835$247.33−$3.24
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.9360.945$158.69+$1.54
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5? · Up0.9991.000$154.84+$0.16
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? · No0.7620.755$111.17−$1.02
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? · No0.8070.815$108.53+$1.11
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? · No0.9170.905$71.27−$0.98
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? · Yes0.9991.000$65.34+$0.07
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · No0.9450.967$59.11+$1.32
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? · No0.9100.925$57.05+$0.93
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? · No0.9680.976$50.70+$0.38
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? · No0.8400.835$39.50−$0.24
Iran Nuke before 2027? · No0.9520.971$35.05+$0.66
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? · No0.7500.715$31.57−$1.55

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-15 07:30NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?SELL0.25$0.01
10-15 05:57Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?SELL0.92$0.01
10-15 04:59US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?SELL0.093$0.92
10-15 04:58US x Yemen ceasefire continues through November 30?SELL0.68$0.50
10-15 04:55NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?SELL0.25$0.67
10-15 03:31Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?BUY0.7499998867$3.31
10-15 02:49NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?SELL0.91$1.96
10-15 02:13Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?SELL0.963$3.22
10-15 02:11Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?SELL0.25$0.25
10-15 00:35US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?SELL0.41$4.74
10-15 00:20US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?SELL0.31$0.56
10-15 00:09US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?SELL0.3$0.53
10-14 23:03Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?SELL0.22$0.20
10-14 22:42US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?SELL0.41$0.23
10-14 22:42US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?SELL0.31$0.27