PolyBot

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Traders

xenonliu

0x94bde001e4a00152490c60bebe2aab120e8c6184

Realised P&L
$-5.9k
Volume
$1.70M
Markets traded
378
Open portfolio
$73.7k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded378
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration39.3% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration47.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? · No0.8910.920$34.7k+$1.1k
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No0.9410.954$27.5k+$357.90
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? · No0.9620.997$3.5k+$122.73
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No0.5000.779$3.1k+$1.1k
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · No0.8420.885$1.9k+$90.88
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? · No0.9630.997$1.0k+$33.97
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? · Yes0.7790.895$894.49+$115.95
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.5000.221$882.00$1.1k
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · No0.7500.935$93.50+$18.50
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.8200.835$83.50+$1.50
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? · Yes0.2100.555$27.75+$17.25
Trump meets with Putin by December 31? · Yes0.4200.655$19.65+$7.05
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23? · No0.1000.095$9.60$0.46
Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.1% and 1.5%? · Yes0.1500.230$4.60+$1.60
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? · No0.1020.000$0.00$3.05

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-10 05:23Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?BUY0.962$2.2k
08-09 23:29Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?SELL0.55$49.49
07-27 05:34Will CXMT’s market cap be 400 billion yuan or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2026?BUY0.997$5.0k
07-27 05:30Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 3T yuan?SELL0.9198864622$487.74
07-27 05:23Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 3T yuan?BUY0.9429952426$500.00
07-23 15:03Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?SELL0.958641977$982.60
07-23 15:02Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?SELL0.959$2.0k
07-23 13:31Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL0.7223333444$433.39
07-20 13:18Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?BUY0.9074843169$2.0k
07-20 13:18Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?SELL0.985$2.3k
07-19 09:18Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?BUY0.8454793897$500.00
07-19 09:16Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?SELL0.9847373159$3.1k
07-15 08:52Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?BUY0.968$96.80
07-15 08:51Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.82$41.00
07-08 09:29Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL0.75$404.72