xenonliu
0x94bde001e4a00152490c60bebe2aab120e8c6184
- Realised P&L
- $-5.9k
- Volume
- $1.70M
- Markets traded
- 378
- Open portfolio
- $73.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded378
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.0kat 0.750S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 24?
- +$2.8kat 0.824S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 22?
- +$1.5kat 0.781S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 17?
- +$1.3kat 0.918S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 27?
- +$434.78at 0.920S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 26?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-10 05:23 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.962 | $2.2k |
| 08-09 23:29 | Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering? | SELL | 0.55 | $49.49 |
| 07-27 05:34 | Will CXMT’s market cap be 400 billion yuan or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $5.0k |
| 07-27 05:30 | Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 3T yuan? | SELL | 0.9198864622 | $487.74 |
| 07-27 05:23 | Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 3T yuan? | BUY | 0.9429952426 | $500.00 |
| 07-23 15:03 | Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | SELL | 0.958641977 | $982.60 |
| 07-23 15:02 | Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | SELL | 0.959 | $2.0k |
| 07-23 13:31 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.7223333444 | $433.39 |
| 07-20 13:18 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.9074843169 | $2.0k |
| 07-20 13:18 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.985 | $2.3k |
| 07-19 09:18 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.8454793897 | $500.00 |
| 07-19 09:16 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.9847373159 | $3.1k |
| 07-15 08:52 | Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | BUY | 0.968 | $96.80 |
| 07-15 08:51 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.82 | $41.00 |
| 07-08 09:29 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.75 | $404.72 |