0x71e11e0fc20a2adf27026fbf8674b38f8ff945f0
0x71e11e0fc20a2adf27026fbf8674b38f8ff945f0
- Realised P&L
- $77.0k
- Volume
- $3.22M
- Markets traded
- 570
- Open portfolio
- $29.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded570
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$43.5kat 0.302Will Biden pardon Jim Biden?
- +$36.5kat 0.391Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
- +$33.1kat 0.193Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?
- +$23.5kat 0.222Will Biden pardon Fauci?
- +$16.6kat 0.177Fed rate cut by May 1?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 13:49 | Will the Republican Party win the KY-06 House seat? | BUY | 0.44 | $13.20 |
| 10-28 01:25 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.21 | $63.00 |
| 10-27 23:46 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.21 | $63.00 |
| 10-27 23:04 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.21 | $63.00 |
| 10-25 18:12 | Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-02 House seat? | BUY | 0.78 | $23.40 |
| 10-25 18:12 | Will the Republican Party win the NJ-02 House seat? | BUY | 0.76 | $22.80 |
| 10-23 14:13 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.22 | $11.00 |
| 10-23 08:02 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.825 | $41.25 |
| 10-22 15:11 | Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat? | BUY | 0.56 | $0.12 |
| 10-22 12:02 | Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat? | BUY | 0.62 | $18.60 |
| 10-22 09:12 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? | BUY | 0.012 | $2.40 |
| 10-22 05:45 | Will the Republican Party win the OH-15 House seat? | BUY | 0.34 | $10.20 |
| 10-22 05:45 | Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat? | BUY | 0.65 | $19.50 |
| 10-22 04:13 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? | BUY | 0.012 | $1.03 |
| 10-22 04:06 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? | BUY | 0.011 | $1.09 |