Will global temperature increase by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026?

Tick: 0.01
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.05 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.25 · takers only
Ends: 2026-12-02
Resolves by: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.15. Unchanged over the period, from 0.15. Range 0.10 to 0.16. 150 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.28	63	63
0.29	65	128
0.49	30	158
0.50	40	198
0.52	45	243
0.53	55	298
0.55	20	318
0.56	15	333
0.57	100	433
0.58	238	671
0.59	970	1,641
0.70	400	2,041

Spread0.25Mid0.16

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.03	150	150

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.97	150	150

Spread0.25Mid0.84

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.72	63	63
0.71	65	128
0.51	30	158
0.50	40	198
0.48	45	243
0.47	55	298
0.45	20	318
0.44	15	333
0.43	100	433
0.42	238	671
0.41	970	1,641
0.30	400	2,041

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
xtxpleasecallme	Yes	154
0x45e6Df48cCF5d1773D509C97052F819690cEC078-1782111207998	Yes	60
flexer78	Yes	33.33
0x40C73F1916fbd495f8117Dc5755561aD778CB1E8-1782111633519	Yes	5
Numitus1994	Yes	5
0x34dBc406881A24B82F4b138e09169d9a004B1B63-1777004802209	No	170.42
0xa5ef…2966	No	66.91
1x6891589732cf8beaaf424b117d5c5c20919f6bb9	No	20

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
14:45:26	BUY	No	0.97	31	$30.48
12:22:02	BUY	No	0.97	2	$1.85
12:26:32	BUY	Yes	0.14	20	$2.80
11:55:53	BUY	Yes	0.13	40	$5.20
11:31:35	SELL	Yes	0.22	20	$4.40
21:00:05	BUY	No	0.96	5	$4.80
18:00:14	BUY	No	0.89	5	$4.45
10:11:06	BUY	No	0.8744776119	134	$117.18
10:04:53	BUY	No	0.71	20	$14.20