PolyBot

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Traders

cat6767

0x124a73f09f38910fe1f7638f22a0f223c3723741

Realised P&L
$9.5k
Volume
$1.50M
Markets traded
399
Open portfolio
$5.4k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded399
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration21.4% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration44.0% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? · No0.5980.690$2.4k+$318.52
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? · Yes0.8400.745$745.00−$95.00
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? · Yes0.8560.750$393.38−$55.58
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.4850.245$346.29−$339.78
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.8500.933$255.05+$22.69
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? · Yes0.1480.205$204.33+$56.63
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0390.028$174.76−$69.55
Will GEN be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings? · Yes0.1900.380$173.78+$86.89
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? · Yes0.0950.114$167.35+$26.75
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2760.195$117.61−$49.09
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? · Yes0.0960.220$111.63+$62.77
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher? · Yes0.0990.115$63.48+$8.93
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? · No0.5720.245$61.44−$81.91
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? · No0.7000.845$50.05+$8.59
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · No0.8750.979$46.18+$4.88

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-04 01:38Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by January 31, 2027?BUY0.79$15.80
09-30 20:11Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?BUY0.1065245364$136.08
09-30 20:11Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?BUY0.0229396355$4.52
09-24 17:17Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?SELL0.66$132.00
09-24 14:15Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?SELL0.2266209$226.62
09-24 09:29Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?SELL0.1399736736$173.60
09-23 12:15Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?BUY0.1120799013$102.19
09-23 07:27Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?SELL0.1390475711$146.47
09-23 04:53Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?BUY0.122$1.87
09-23 04:53Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?BUY0.1074648492$81.87
09-22 17:56Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by September 22, 2026?BUY0.98$51.94
09-22 17:56Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026?BUY0.989$9.89
09-22 17:52Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026?BUY0.949$12.13
09-22 17:21Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?BUY0.04$61.41
09-22 17:21Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?BUY0.0086683088$47.02