gaven-willwin
0xfbe66593e49c4e7a7180a2582f041158bfb800f8
- Realised P&L
- $-83.3k
- Volume
- $3.57M
- Markets traded
- 31
- Open portfolio
- $158.8k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded31
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration58.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample25 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.472 | 0.405 | $118.6k | −$19.5k |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? · Yes | 0.613 | 0.410 | $34.4k | −$17.0k |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.760 | 0.425 | $5.5k | −$4.4k |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? · No | 0.660 | 0.435 | $299.28 | −$154.80 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · No | 0.332 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$98.8k |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? · Yes | 0.813 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$210.56 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$96.3kat 0.779Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$31.2kat 0.824US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$11.7kat 0.839US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
- +$5.1kat 0.690Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?
- +$4.5kat 0.840US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 03:07 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.39 | $13.9k |
| 07-30 06:43 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.39 | $5.9k |
| 07-30 06:41 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.39 | $11.3k |
| 07-30 06:29 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.39 | $8.9k |
| 07-30 06:28 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.39 | $14.3k |
| 07-30 06:26 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.39 | $11.7k |
| 07-30 06:25 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.39 | $11.7k |
| 07-28 10:42 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7615507246 | $105.09 |
| 07-28 10:42 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7597736469 | $10.1k |
| 07-25 10:31 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7460496776 | $10.0k |
| 07-25 05:53 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7397855085 | $19.7k |
| 07-23 11:58 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.762 | $358.14 |
| 07-23 11:58 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.762 | $2.4k |
| 07-23 11:56 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7613987745 | $5.3k |
| 07-23 11:54 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.761842607 | $15.9k |