PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

MHD1997

0xfad4879c904e3507b4c4b7e70a06b183a99ea7f1

Realised P&L
$-85.08
Volume
$33.4k
Markets traded
63
Open portfolio
$32.08

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded63
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration37.1% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample38 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)57.9%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration39.0% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? · Yes0.1601.000$12.50+$10.50
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? · Yes0.2401.000$8.33+$6.33
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? · Yes0.3601.000$2.78+$1.78
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026? · No0.9400.999$1.06+$0.06
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026? · No0.9971.000$1.00+$0.00
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026? · No0.9950.998$1.00+$0.00
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026? · No0.9960.998$1.00+$0.00
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026? · No0.9970.998$1.00+$0.00
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? · No0.9140.715$0.78−$0.22
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? · Yes0.6700.050$0.75−$9.25
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026? · Yes0.0040.003$0.58−$0.42
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026? · Yes0.0080.004$0.45−$0.55
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026? · Yes0.0050.003$0.45−$0.55
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026? · Yes0.0090.003$0.26−$0.74
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026? · Yes0.0040.001$0.12−$0.88

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
04-02 22:45Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:45PM-6:50PM ETBUY0.209999974$4.43
04-02 22:45Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:45PM-6:50PM ETBUY0.209999974$4.43
04-02 22:45Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:45PM-6:50PM ETBUY0.359999977$4.54
04-02 22:44Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ETBUY0.2899999846$8.98
04-02 22:44US forces enter Iran by March 31?BUY0.001$10.00
04-02 18:31Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ETSELL0.34$5.38
04-02 18:30Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ETBUY0.29999997$4.50
04-02 18:30Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ETBUY0.7099999815$9.58
04-02 18:27Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:25PM-2:30PM ETBUY0.0899999845$4.34
04-02 18:26Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:25PM-2:30PM ETBUY0.1$4.35
04-02 18:25Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:25PM-2:30PM ETBUY0.2345857535$17.80
04-02 18:25Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:20PM-2:25PM ETSELL0.99$22.23
04-02 18:22Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:20PM-2:25PM ETBUY0.209999974$4.43
04-02 18:21US forces enter Iran by April 30?BUY0.3899999902$20.00
03-27 10:35US forces enter Iran by March 31?BUY0.16$6.00