PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

dilution

0xfa2a9ffc9953cce115b8e855377822e201a5c1fa

Realised P&L
$-604.52
Volume
$285.1k
Markets traded
135
Open portfolio
$10.6k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded135
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration23.3% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration17.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · No0.8190.875$1.8k+$117.06
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes0.6870.555$1.6k−$383.50
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.8340.825$1.4k−$14.96
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.6660.405$1.1k−$729.98
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes0.9100.875$875.00−$35.00
Iran Nuke before 2027? · No0.9330.969$581.41+$21.70
Will GameStop acquire eBay? · No0.8470.955$573.71+$64.65
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · No0.9200.955$573.00+$21.00
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? · No0.8130.910$527.97+$56.40
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No0.8120.841$504.30+$17.10
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes0.9760.980$410.81+$1.47
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2330.125$263.09−$228.26
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.1410.155$186.00+$16.80
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? · No0.8790.976$162.70+$16.01
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026? · Yes0.6500.170$17.00−$48.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-24 09:18Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?BUY0.74$740.00
09-18 22:52Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?BUY0.9291662059$857.07
09-04 17:53Over $30M committed to the Ethos public sale?BUY0.998$59.88
07-24 12:04Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?SELL0.974$23.24
07-24 11:46NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?BUY0.22$38.50
07-24 09:24NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?BUY0.24$66.40
07-24 09:22NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?BUY0.24$78.40
07-24 09:20NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?BUY0.23$12.72
07-24 09:18NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?BUY0.23$17.63
07-24 09:18NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?BUY0.24$42.40
07-24 09:18NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?BUY0.24$43.60
07-24 09:16NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?BUY0.2292851676$191.71
07-20 17:16China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?BUY0.9$270.00
07-20 11:00China x Philippines military clash before 2027?BUY0.82$86.10
07-20 11:00China x Philippines military clash before 2027?BUY0.83$206.10