fed26
0xaf458bee32b8f1d9ba39ee876f20c7e3ce62ec7d
- Realised P&L
- $2.0k
- Volume
- $3.65M
- Markets traded
- 34
- Open portfolio
- $264.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded34
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample28 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration96.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.395 | 0.971 | $254.9k | +$151.1k |
| Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? · No | 0.387 | 0.986 | $3.3k | +$2.0k |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? · No | 0.499 | 0.977 | $2.3k | +$1.1k |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.005 | $1.9k | −$1.2k |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.014 | 0.017 | $1.8k | +$303.53 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? · Yes | 0.404 | 0.013 | $37.54 | −$1.1k |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? · Yes | 0.079 | 0.259 | $25.76 | +$17.90 |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · No | 0.828 | 0.994 | $1.99 | +$0.33 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.142 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.7k |
| Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? · Yes | 0.063 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.85 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.4kat 0.941No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
- +$5.1kat 0.958Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by March 31?
- +$4.6kat 0.517Fed rate hike in 2026?
- +$1.9kat 0.782Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30?
- +$1.7kat 0.962Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 27-February 2?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 05:38 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.971 | $13.08 |
| 07-21 03:36 | Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? | BUY | 0.0626828786 | $7.93 |
| 07-21 03:34 | Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? | SELL | 0.057 | $0.29 |
| 07-21 03:34 | Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? | SELL | 0.057 | $1.77 |
| 07-21 03:32 | Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? | SELL | 0.057 | $0.29 |
| 07-21 03:31 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.845 | $4.22 |
| 07-15 03:57 | Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? | BUY | 0.065 | $5.59 |
| 07-06 04:25 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.096 | $4.20 |
| 07-06 04:18 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.096 | $365.05 |
| 07-03 16:41 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.092 | $13.89 |
| 07-01 18:48 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? | SELL | 0.2997646073 | $160.94 |
| 06-26 01:33 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.175 | $197.63 |
| 06-24 06:59 | Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.8143838533 | $4.3k |
| 06-23 18:16 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $3.00 |
| 06-23 17:46 | Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.8302630092 | $3.6k |