PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

Ogre-Magi

0x99f0563d918b53dd8bedbcf1709af042c051649f

Realised P&L
$3.3k
Volume
$232.5k
Markets traded
436
Open portfolio
$1.6k

Can you copy this trader?

plausibleNo blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded436
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration14.2% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration18.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · No0.4730.435$307.00$27.21
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.7720.795$296.44+$8.52
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? · Yes0.5140.605$99.66+$15.04
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? · Yes0.4290.465$97.00+$7.56
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? · No0.8600.885$73.72+$2.08
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026? · Yes0.1900.445$59.47+$34.07
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? · No0.7060.705$52.14$0.06
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31? · Yes0.0380.027$49.99$21.01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? · No0.4300.755$49.86+$21.46
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · No0.8160.745$45.85$4.36
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? · Anthropic0.7800.895$44.73+$5.75
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? · No0.8860.915$41.63+$1.32
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? · No0.9000.925$41.63+$1.13
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · No0.8800.875$39.38$0.23
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? · No0.8400.875$37.64+$1.51

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-02 02:40Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?BUY0.46$46.00
08-02 02:40Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?BUY0.46$46.00
08-02 02:20Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?BUY0.49$25.40
08-02 02:20Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?BUY0.48$4.80
08-02 02:12Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?BUY0.5$37.85
08-02 02:12Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?BUY0.49$8.45
08-02 02:10Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?BUY0.5$3.81
07-28 13:18Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?SELL0.44$539.00
07-28 13:100 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?BUY0.021$4.17
07-28 02:05US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?SELL0.999$14.15
07-28 02:05US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?SELL0.999$194.77
07-27 15:49US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?BUY0.92$36.80
07-27 15:46US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?BUY0.9$41.99
07-27 15:44US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?BUY0.9$12.00
07-27 15:44US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?BUY0.9$12.00