cyniciam
0x88de464d04615d025c9c0f398b107fef70182f7e
- Realised P&L
- $-678.89
- Volume
- $21.4k
- Markets traded
- 388
- Open portfolio
- $128.66
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded388
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration64.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration11.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$55.14at 0.035Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.4% by March 31?
- +$37.82at 0.198Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
- +$30.97at 0.475US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?
- +$24.41at 0.170US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?
- +$20.73at 0.591Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 05:55 | Will Clavicular be arrested by September 25? | BUY | 0.0721778462 | $6.00 |
| 09-22 05:55 | Will Clavicular be arrested by September 30? | BUY | 0.1451612901 | $10.00 |
| 09-22 05:51 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.3899999945 | $5.00 |
| 09-22 05:51 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.1589999994 | $5.00 |
| 09-22 05:50 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.5129999839 | $5.00 |
| 09-22 05:49 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1899999998 | $10.00 |
| 09-22 05:49 | Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0317514497 | $5.00 |
| 09-22 05:48 | Will Trump and Putin not meet? | BUY | 0.269999993 | $10.00 |
| 09-22 05:43 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.6089999721 | $10.00 |
| 09-22 05:43 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.5319999853 | $10.00 |
| 09-22 05:43 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | BUY | 0.1173020528 | $10.00 |
| 09-22 05:42 | Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.24 | $12.00 |
| 09-22 05:41 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.3699999867 | $10.00 |
| 09-22 05:41 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299999924 | $10.00 |
| 09-22 05:38 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.15 | $10.00 |