pako
0x71edffd0d70a1da823ff07a3c6fc81457294d338
- Realised P&L
- $431.3k
- Volume
- $20.27M
- Markets traded
- 487
- Open portfolio
- $58.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded487
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration60.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$154.4kat 0.443Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$86.9kat 0.789No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?
- +$82.2kat 0.802Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
- +$72.3kat 0.896Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
- +$69.7kat 0.857No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 18:41 | Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? | BUY | 0.9555668009 | $250.00 |
| 10-31 18:39 | Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? | BUY | 0.9521341817 | $3.0k |
| 10-31 18:37 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.984 | $13.3k |
| 10-28 23:03 | Will no one dissent the December Fed decision? | BUY | 0.57 | $225.15 |
| 10-27 15:19 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.943 | $2.1k |
| 10-27 15:15 | Will no one dissent the December Fed decision? | BUY | 0.6 | $102.60 |
| 10-27 15:14 | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.7965446732 | $2.2k |
| 10-27 15:13 | Will no one dissent the October Fed decision? | BUY | 0.2 | $5.00 |
| 10-27 15:13 | Will three people dissent the October Fed decision? | BUY | 0.229999994 | $5.00 |
| 10-27 15:12 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.04 | $10.20 |
| 10-27 14:58 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in October? | BUY | 0.5 | $5.00 |
| 10-22 15:08 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.93 | $3.4k |
| 10-22 15:07 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.93 | $75.4k |
| 10-22 15:01 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.996 | $77.4k |
| 10-16 12:25 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.01 |