big-short
0x63c652270a37e53a170303b6b264a2aa835743a5
- Realised P&L
- $55.5k
- Volume
- $1.17M
- Markets traded
- 1,311
- Open portfolio
- $6.9k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.7%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- CautionMarkets traded1,311
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration23.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.9kat 0.485MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?
- +$5.1kat 0.459US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$3.3kat 0.533US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
- +$2.4kat 0.790Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2025?
- +$2.3kat 0.858Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 16:16 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3108383838 | $153.86 |
| 07-28 22:58 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | SELL | 0.955 | $1.5k |
| 05-31 11:50 | Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? | SELL | 0.996 | $498.00 |
| 05-13 08:55 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.39 | $1.3k |
| 05-11 11:58 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.719 | $1.4k |
| 05-11 11:58 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $333.92 |
| 05-11 11:58 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7179896652 | $1.5k |
| 04-06 16:32 | Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" or "Biden" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | BUY | 0.0574285714 | $40.20 |
| 03-07 00:33 | Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | BUY | 0.89 | $2.2k |
| 03-07 00:24 | Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | BUY | 0.86 | $12.9k |
| 03-07 00:06 | Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | BUY | 0.8372753313 | $42.97 |
| 03-07 00:05 | Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | BUY | 0.82 | $485.61 |
| 03-05 21:41 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | BUY | 0.933 | $5.78 |
| 02-28 06:31 | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY | 0.72 | $113.04 |
| 02-28 06:24 | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.98 | $71.37 |