AlexielLucifen
0x53a614eae89450918fa6484422c4d1afea16b412
- Realised P&L
- $-57.63
- Volume
- $15.7k
- Markets traded
- 64
- Open portfolio
- $36.40
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded64
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration55.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.68at 0.120Will Cintas (CTAS) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?
- +$2.43at 0.003Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16?
- +$2.40at 0.150Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?
- +$1.78at 0.054Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2027?
- +$1.72at 0.029Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 10:02 | Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.24 | $1.44 |
| 10-01 09:53 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2027? | BUY | 0.004 | $0.08 |
| 10-01 09:53 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2027? | BUY | 0.004 | $0.08 |
| 10-01 09:52 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2027? | BUY | 0.005 | $0.69 |
| 10-01 09:51 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2027? | SELL | 0.14 | $2.00 |
| 10-01 09:51 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2027? | SELL | 0.11 | $3.85 |
| 09-28 21:46 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.012 | $0.20 |
| 09-28 21:44 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.005 | $1.01 |
| 09-28 12:47 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2027? | BUY | 0.007 | $0.13 |
| 09-28 12:45 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027? | SELL | 0.19 | $2.09 |
| 09-27 12:17 | Will Bitget resume withdrawals by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.017 | $0.85 |
| 09-27 10:12 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.5% at the end of 2027? | BUY | 0.14 | $1.40 |
| 09-26 15:18 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2027? | BUY | 0.011 | $0.22 |
| 09-26 09:28 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | SELL | 0.07 | $0.91 |
| 09-26 09:28 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | SELL | 0.3 | $3.00 |