PolyBot

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Traders

0x4015AEAA3f46A054ea717Cd140a85e206971f4A9-1780774672439

0x4015aeaa3f46a054ea717cd140a85e206971f4a9

Realised P&L
$261.24
Volume
$12.6k
Markets traded
47
Open portfolio
$3.4k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar2.1%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded47
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration17.9% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
CautionSettled sample19 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)89.5%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration13.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027? · No0.8350.877$455.11+$22.30
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? · No0.6000.805$367.16+$93.34
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? · Yes0.8200.963$320.61+$47.61
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes0.9470.960$263.86+$3.43
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? · No0.7880.800$256.42+$3.79
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? · Yes0.8110.405$217.43$218.11
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027? · No0.9610.939$140.85$3.30
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.55% before 2027? · No0.5850.650$130.00+$13.00
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? · No0.8600.973$115.81+$13.40
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% before 2027? · No0.9600.969$107.56+$0.97
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027? · No0.9530.954$95.35+$0.05
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027? · No0.9200.899$89.90$2.10
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? · No0.2200.445$89.00+$45.00
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.80% before 2027? · No0.9050.858$85.80$4.70
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? · No0.8930.856$85.55$3.75

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-18 18:30Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.55% before 2027?BUY0.59$59.00
09-17 22:24Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% before 2027?BUY0.96325$96.33
09-17 15:05Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% before 2027?BUY0.955$14.32
09-17 13:47Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?SELL0.8$160.00
09-16 18:15Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?BUY0.943$47.15
09-16 02:36Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?SELL0.973$19.46
09-14 21:22Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% in September?BUY0.85$42.50
09-14 16:00Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?BUY0.39$19.50
08-12 03:10S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 12?BUY0.62$24.80
08-07 20:49Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?BUY0.88$176.00
08-07 20:47Fed rate hike in 2026?BUY0.55$82.50
08-07 20:40Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?BUY0.91$182.00
08-07 20:37Situational Awareness raises new capital by August 31?SELL0.74$110.26
08-05 01:22Will GameStop acquire eBay?BUY0.88$88.00
08-05 01:22Will GameStop acquire eBay?BUY0.88$88.00