PolyBot

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Traders

konduktor

0x3e7c23f97328528abe5d40c9b08a3d76e1a1eb65

Realised P&L
$30.37
Volume
$972.61
Markets traded
66
Open portfolio
$41.48

Can you copy this trader?

plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar3.1%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
ClearMarkets traded66
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration31.8% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample49 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)71.4%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration16.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes0.5530.745$6.74+$1.74
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2100.265$6.31+$1.31
Anduril Industries IPO before 2027? · No0.9000.978$5.43+$0.43
Anduril IPO before 2027? · No0.9100.976$5.36+$0.36
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.3940.484$4.92+$0.92
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? · Yes0.8400.795$4.73−$0.27
Will the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026? · Yes0.3000.075$2.50−$7.50
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.2140.228$2.13+$0.13
Anthropic IPO before 2027? · Yes0.7600.695$1.83−$0.17
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · Yes0.1800.045$0.75−$2.25
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 · No0.5700.195$0.34−$0.66
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? · Yes0.2900.085$0.29−$0.71
Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31? · Yes0.6500.090$0.14−$0.86
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.3440.000$0.00−$5.00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? · Yes0.6000.000$0.00−$5.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-18 09:50Will AfD win the most seats in 1 German state election in September 2026?BUY0.5569999803$10.00
09-18 09:35Will the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?BUY0.299999994$10.00
09-18 09:22Another Fed rate hike in 2026?BUY0.8399999933$5.00
07-10 20:08Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?BUY0.7899999802$4.00
07-10 20:07Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 24, 2026?BUY0.3899999558$3.00
07-10 20:05Anduril IPO before 2027?BUY0.91$5.00
07-10 20:04Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?BUY0.9$5.00
07-10 20:04Anthropic IPO before 2027?BUY0.7599998024$2.00
07-10 20:04SHEIN IPO before 2027?BUY0.6109999996$3.00
07-10 20:04SHEIN IPO before 2027?BUY0.61099996$2.00
07-04 06:53Will Discord IPO by September 30, 2026?BUY0.9$2.00
07-04 06:51AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?BUY0.8299999792$2.00
07-04 06:50Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31?BUY0.65$1.00
07-04 06:48Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?BUY0.6$4.00
07-04 06:48Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?BUY0.91$5.00