konduktor
0x3e7c23f97328528abe5d40c9b08a3d76e1a1eb65
- Realised P&L
- $41.43
- Volume
- $915.37
- Markets traded
- 63
- Open portfolio
- $47.07
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded63
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample46 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)69.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$22.43at 0.506Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?
- +$11.67at 0.720Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
- +$4.26at 0.540Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$4.09at 0.550Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
- +$3.81at 0.007Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-10 20:08 | Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31? | BUY | 0.7899999802 | $4.00 |
| 07-10 20:07 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999558 | $3.00 |
| 07-10 20:05 | Anduril IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.91 | $5.00 |
| 07-10 20:04 | Anduril Industries IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $5.00 |
| 07-10 20:04 | Anthropic IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.7599998024 | $2.00 |
| 07-10 20:04 | SHEIN IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.6109999996 | $3.00 |
| 07-10 20:04 | SHEIN IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.61099996 | $2.00 |
| 07-04 06:53 | Will Discord IPO by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $2.00 |
| 07-04 06:51 | AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? | BUY | 0.8299999792 | $2.00 |
| 07-04 06:50 | Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31? | BUY | 0.65 | $1.00 |
| 07-04 06:48 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.6 | $4.00 |
| 07-04 06:48 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $5.00 |
| 07-04 06:42 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.209999974 | $5.00 |
| 07-04 06:40 | Counter-Strike: FaZe Up Next vs LEO (BO3) - United21 Group B | BUY | 0.71 | $2.00 |
| 07-04 06:40 | Counter-Strike: Alliance vs 9z (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stage | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |