konduktor
0x3e7c23f97328528abe5d40c9b08a3d76e1a1eb65
- Realised P&L
- $30.37
- Volume
- $972.61
- Markets traded
- 66
- Open portfolio
- $41.48
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded66
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample49 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)71.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$22.43at 0.506Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?
- +$11.41at 0.726Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
- +$4.26at 0.540Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$4.09at 0.550Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
- +$3.81at 0.007Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 09:50 | Will AfD win the most seats in 1 German state election in September 2026? | BUY | 0.5569999803 | $10.00 |
| 09-18 09:35 | Will the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.299999994 | $10.00 |
| 09-18 09:22 | Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.8399999933 | $5.00 |
| 07-10 20:08 | Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31? | BUY | 0.7899999802 | $4.00 |
| 07-10 20:07 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999558 | $3.00 |
| 07-10 20:05 | Anduril IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.91 | $5.00 |
| 07-10 20:04 | Anduril Industries IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $5.00 |
| 07-10 20:04 | Anthropic IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.7599998024 | $2.00 |
| 07-10 20:04 | SHEIN IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.6109999996 | $3.00 |
| 07-10 20:04 | SHEIN IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.61099996 | $2.00 |
| 07-04 06:53 | Will Discord IPO by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $2.00 |
| 07-04 06:51 | AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? | BUY | 0.8299999792 | $2.00 |
| 07-04 06:50 | Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31? | BUY | 0.65 | $1.00 |
| 07-04 06:48 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.6 | $4.00 |
| 07-04 06:48 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $5.00 |