PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

MWM

0x3b37d367aa4f53c8c2439d85ddbc52a3e4716962

Realised P&L
$-9.2k
Volume
$322.6k
Markets traded
209
Open portfolio
$3.3k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded209
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration27.3% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration17.8% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No0.8680.840$580.47−$19.53
AI bubble burst in 2026? · No0.8960.934$521.49+$21.49
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.5510.363$469.73−$242.77
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes0.6850.385$393.26−$306.74
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No0.6600.846$384.55+$84.55
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No0.9360.944$342.71+$2.71
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0660.142$217.43+$117.43
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.1390.219$198.98+$72.64
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.0410.017$56.72−$83.27
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes0.1180.051$43.35−$56.65
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? · Yes0.1500.135$29.15−$3.24
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.0120.017$13.53+$3.53
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes0.0350.009$8.05−$21.95
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day? · Yes0.0510.011$4.14−$15.86
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on Humanity’s Last Exam? · Yes0.2030.000$0.00−$73.86

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-30 19:28AI bubble burst in 2026?BUY0.895997982$500.00
10-03 16:32Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY0.8329999987$100.00
10-03 16:32Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?BUY0.1549999998$100.00
10-03 16:30Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY0.8329999994$200.00
10-03 16:28Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?SELL0.968$397.08
10-03 16:272026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseSELL0.06$37.56
10-03 16:272026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseSELL0.28$84.00
10-03 16:272026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseSELL0.64$278.26
07-19 21:38Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?BUY0.0354247684$30.00
07-19 21:36Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?SELL0.404$174.26
07-19 21:30Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?SELL0.07$4.90
07-01 06:07Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?SELL0.794$120.30
07-01 06:06Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?SELL0.977$424.32
07-01 06:05Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?SELL0.96$204.25
07-01 06:04Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?SELL0.964$99.78