MWM
0x3b37d367aa4f53c8c2439d85ddbc52a3e4716962
- Realised P&L
- $-9.0k
- Volume
- $324.0k
- Markets traded
- 208
- Open portfolio
- $3.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded208
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.4kat 0.645Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?
- +$1.3kat 0.485Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?
- +$1.2kat 0.707Will ≥10% of Votes go to 3rd Party Candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$1.1kat 0.223Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- +$824.28at 0.711Will 2024 be the hottest year on record?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 21:38 | Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.0354247684 | $30.00 |
| 07-19 21:36 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.404 | $174.26 |
| 07-19 21:30 | Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? | SELL | 0.07 | $4.90 |
| 07-01 06:07 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.794 | $120.30 |
| 07-01 06:06 | Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.977 | $424.32 |
| 07-01 06:05 | Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.96 | $204.25 |
| 07-01 06:04 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.964 | $99.78 |
| 07-01 05:57 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.6853006972 | $700.00 |
| 07-01 05:57 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.1176576701 | $100.00 |
| 04-19 03:17 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0655382539 | $100.00 |
| 03-26 17:38 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.7799999995 | $200.00 |
| 03-20 16:15 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.5932271722 | $200.00 |
| 03-12 16:11 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | BUY | 0.3499999989 | $150.00 |
| 03-12 16:04 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.383367282 | $661.44 |
| 03-12 15:39 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | SELL | 0.8533511963 | $227.55 |