PolyBot

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Traders

richardd

0x34cb173d34b6c8de809399dae2a595a525827588

Realised P&L
$-3.0k
Volume
$1.97M
Markets traded
4,642
Open portfolio
$11.3k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded4,642
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
CautionProfit concentration32.7% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)16.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration43.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No0.5000.817$4.9k+$1.9k
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? · Yes0.9180.897$1.7k−$41.33
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.4950.183$1.1k−$1.9k
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $6.50 on October 31, 2026? · Yes0.9500.979$864.08+$24.78
Will Luke Combs appear at the 2027 Big Game halftime show? · No0.9180.915$409.88−$1.46
Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2026? · No0.6460.648$273.47+$0.98
Will Anthropic's frontier output token price be at or above $75 in 2026? · No0.7090.670$187.60−$10.89
Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $3.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026? · No0.7210.565$185.05−$51.10
Will Joint List win 10-11 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? · Yes0.9380.962$182.14+$4.51
Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $2.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2026? · No0.8430.811$153.63−$5.93
Will Claude Opus's output price be at or above $30 in 2026? · No0.7230.770$153.18+$9.36
Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $4.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026? · No0.8520.885$116.38+$4.40
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or above $60 in 2026? · No0.7900.915$92.95+$12.71
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher? · No0.9000.944$81.59+$3.80
Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election? · No0.8200.800$80.00−$2.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-02 04:21Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?SELL0.8$80.00
11-02 02:52Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?BUY0.629$37.74
11-02 02:43Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?SELL0.0124193751$1.18
11-02 02:24Will Anthropic raise between $125B and $135B in its IPO?SELL0.0025748532$0.68
11-02 02:23Will Anthropic raise between $75B and $85B in its IPO?BUY0.1152487962$21.78
11-02 02:20Will Anthropic raise between $75B and $85B in its IPO?BUY0.02$0.20
11-02 02:14Will Michael McGreevy win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award?SELL0.01$1.45
11-02 02:04Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?BUY0.6583360818$122.96
11-02 02:02Will Joint List win 12 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?SELL0.01$0.30
11-02 01:56Will Masyn Winn win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award?SELL0.0056863366$0.57
11-01 23:53Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 22-24%?SELL0.001$0.09
11-01 16:10Will the 2026 New York City Marathon Women's Open Division winner finish in 2:23:00 or faster?SELL0.0017105025$0.19
11-01 16:10Will the 2026 New York City Marathon Women's Open Division winner finish in 2:22:00 or faster?SELL0.001$0.01
11-01 16:08Will the 2026 New York City Marathon Women's Open Division winner finish in 2:23:00 or faster?SELL0.040473715$0.69
11-01 16:04Will the 2026 New York City Marathon Women's Open Division winner finish in 2:22:00 or faster?BUY0.01$0.15