PolyBot

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Will Anthropic's frontier output token price be at or above $75 in 2026?

Tick
0.01
Min order
5
Fees
0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends
2027-01-01
Resolves by
https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing
Rewards
20 min size · 6.5¢ max spread

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.43. up 0.20 over the period, from 0.23. Range 0.12 to 0.52. 163 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.552020
0.693050
0.7480130
0.7765195
0.8055250
0.8130280
0.8620300
0.949309
0.9520329
0.9612341
0.9720361
0.9830391

Spread0.23Mid0.44

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.322020
0.144060
0.1081141
0.0975216
0.086222
0.0730252
0.0625277
0.0320297
0.0219316
0.0149365

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.682020
0.864060
0.9081141
0.9175216
0.926222
0.9330252
0.9425277
0.9720297
0.9819316
0.9949365

Spread0.23Mid0.57

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.452020
0.313050
0.2680130
0.2365195
0.2055250
0.1930280
0.1420300
0.069309
0.0520329
0.0412341
0.0320361
0.0230391

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
tradetosurvive1Yes40
AJSVYes21.57
0xe597…02caYes20
2B9SYes10.2
FihdrzgddYes1
Kronk1No40.12
richarddNo20
CarabaoNo19
GuyFromTinderNo13.65

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
09:25:24SELLNo0.5619$10.64
08:08:09SELLNo0.311$0.31
08:08:01BUYNo0.591$0.59
08:08:00BUYNo0.5919$11.21
06:45:03BUYNo0.6120$12.20
05:23:26SELLNo0.620$12.00
13:42:48BUYNo0.5920$11.80
13:28:47BUYYes0.3320$6.60
02:39:52BUYYes0.1880$14.40
14:07:05BUYNo0.7540$30.00
01:36:18BUYNo0.7540$30.00
01:36:17BUYNo0.7540$30.00
07:51:41SELLYes0.3220$6.40
02:04:43BUYNo0.6720$13.40
17:36:06BUYNo0.7720$15.40
14:09:45BUYNo0.7720$15.40
19:00:33SELLNo0.820$0.01
19:00:33SELLYes0.170$0.00
21:01:42SELLNo0.8230$24.60
06:17:54SELLYes0.140$0.03
22:37:20SELLYes0.141$0.14
22:37:00SELLYes0.141$0.17
21:03:38BUYNo0.8320$16.60
21:03:38BUYNo0.829999995229$24.00
14:23:00BUYNo0.82999990871$1.00