ololololololololo
0x2c4ca29d332c67d3ad7bf22b3cfe9486e3b1cb39
- Realised P&L
- $-100.9k
- Volume
- $6.45M
- Markets traded
- 159
- Open portfolio
- $530.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded159
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration82.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$64.3kat 0.189US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$29.7kat 0.038Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
- +$27.5kat 0.704Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
- +$22.2kat 0.291US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?
- +$16.7kat 0.388Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 15:38 | Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $495.82 |
| 09-14 20:39 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $756.83 |
| 09-14 20:38 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.93 | $4.1k |
| 09-14 09:06 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $0.66 |
| 09-14 09:04 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.93 | $3.1k |
| 09-13 17:35 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.13 | $199.32 |
| 09-12 19:08 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.13 | $447.93 |
| 08-01 03:09 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.1131456956 | $1.1k |
| 07-31 21:45 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.1085994486 | $1.3k |
| 07-30 15:14 | Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.11 | $189.71 |
| 07-29 17:47 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.003 | $333.33 |
| 07-29 17:36 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.23 | $118.37 |
| 07-28 22:39 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.23 | $3.4k |
| 07-28 22:37 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.91 | $5.1k |
| 07-28 21:57 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.23 | $81.19 |