qcp11
0x21847e62996173449d295bc00c5d5f427fb500df
- Realised P&L
- $2.1k
- Volume
- $68.4k
- Markets traded
- 354
- Open portfolio
- $806.49
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded354
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$728.15at 0.0210 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?
- +$351.69at 0.190Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?
- +$184.80at 0.550Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?
- +$151.80at 0.310Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?
- +$114.26at 0.442Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 19:01 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.25 | $3.37 |
| 09-15 16:44 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.523 | $6.28 |
| 09-15 16:44 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.5006821282 | $7.34 |
| 09-15 16:38 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.589 | $7.72 |
| 09-15 16:38 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.622331565 | $18.77 |
| 09-15 06:30 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.774 | $2.26 |
| 09-14 21:31 | Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31? | SELL | 0.84 | $4.86 |
| 09-14 20:04 | Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? | BUY | 0.73 | $6.09 |
| 09-14 14:58 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.855 | $5.99 |
| 09-14 13:41 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 19? | BUY | 0.97 | $5.95 |
| 09-14 13:41 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 19? | BUY | 0.98 | $5.94 |
| 09-12 14:42 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.845 | $6.26 |
| 09-12 14:39 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.858 | $6.00 |
| 09-12 12:17 | Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? | BUY | 0.25 | $4.40 |
| 09-12 11:19 | Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? | SELL | 0.078 | $1.35 |