PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

jiayadong

0x17b5a232e5b8490afabf7a76ebe637a53fd3c164

Realised P&L
$-176.56
Volume
$3.4k
Markets traded
131
Open portfolio
$54.05

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-5.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded131
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration47.6% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration12.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Solana dip to $110 on September 24? · No0.9101.000$6.59+$0.59
Will Girona FC win on 2026-09-25? · Yes0.6301.000$6.35+$2.35
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No0.9640.964$6.00−$0.00
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September? · Yes0.8701.000$5.75+$0.75
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes0.8520.966$5.67+$0.67
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? · No0.9600.998$5.19+$0.19
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? · No0.9560.969$5.07+$0.07
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes0.6900.645$3.74−$0.26
Over $140B wagered on US sports betting in 2026? · Yes0.8800.838$2.86−$0.14
Will CA Penarol Montevideo win on 2026-09-26? · Yes0.7000.655$2.81−$0.19
Will GPT Sol 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $10 by June 30, 2027? · Yes0.9900.695$2.11−$0.89
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No0.6600.848$1.93+$0.43
Will Peru win on 2025-11-12? · Yes0.1500.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? · Yes0.2300.000$0.00−$4.00
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? · No0.6600.000$0.00−$2.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-24 09:24Will CA Penarol Montevideo win on 2026-09-26?BUY0.6999999767$3.00
09-24 09:23Will Girona FC win on 2026-09-25?BUY0.6299999764$4.00
09-24 09:22Will GPT Sol 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $10 by June 30, 2027?BUY0.99$3.00
09-24 09:22Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?BUY0.6899999345$4.00
09-24 08:14Will Solana dip to $110 on September 24?BUY0.91$6.00
09-24 08:13Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?BUY0.8699999983$5.00
09-13 06:18Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-13?BUY0.4499999944$4.00
09-13 06:18Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-13?BUY0.8499999915$10.00
09-13 06:16Will Real Sporting de Gijón win on 2026-09-13?BUY0.5799999768$4.00
09-13 06:15Will CS Cristal win on 2026-09-12?BUY0.5299999587$5.00
09-05 00:29Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 8:25PM-8:30PM ETBUY0.01$5.00
09-05 00:27Toledo vs. Michigan StateBUY0.88$4.00
09-05 00:26Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.5$3.00
09-05 00:25Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?BUY0.9639999968$6.00
09-05 00:24Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?BUY0.955999896$5.00