Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?

Tick: 0.01
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2026-12-31
Resolves by: https://agi.safe.ai/
Rewards: 40 min size · 4.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.52. up 0.05 over the period, from 0.47. Range 0.42 to 0.52. 168 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.52	707	707
0.53	370	1,077
0.87	85	1,162
0.88	58	1,220
0.90	41	1,261
0.94	10	1,271
0.95	82	1,353
0.99	20	1,373

Spread0.01Mid0.52

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.51	80	80
0.50	130	210
0.49	40	250
0.43	277	527
0.42	17	543
0.39	140	683
0.33	20	703
0.10	41	744
0.05	13	757
0.04	596	1,353
0.01	17	1,370

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.49	80	80
0.50	130	210
0.51	40	250
0.57	277	527
0.58	17	543
0.61	140	683
0.67	20	703
0.90	41	744
0.95	13	757
0.96	596	1,353
0.99	17	1,370

Spread0.01Mid0.48

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.48	707	707
0.47	370	1,077
0.13	85	1,162
0.12	58	1,220
0.10	41	1,261
0.06	10	1,271
0.05	82	1,353
0.01	20	1,373

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
Ayanokoji67	Yes	157.7
zk1984	Yes	130
acarya	Yes	82
0x66eb49e6E0E01929704dEcab4D0c44F85F9fDC17-1785128909213	Yes	62.1
chessplayer	Yes	55
pootytherewardfarmer	Yes	53.52
0x8e8208EF4D217dA3608479639dAA218a52EC30aF-1772207100223	Yes	10
GuyFromTinder	Yes	9.36
Fihdrzgdd	Yes	7.73
0xdb03…4c97	Yes	2.5
0x10e58a06904C5b20a01902c4711171451724B7AA-1760601113754	No	234.65
shoobadooba18	No	140
LornaPredicts	No	76.87
ilovecarrots	No	40
AJSV	No	32.7
0xfec464f25Ce66AaEb9Bd4Ecb94b7184520bCCFc8-1741783184737	No	23.34
LastOrder	No	20.28
billygod	No	2

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
09:59:32	SELL	No	0.48	40	$19.20
04:03:44	BUY	Yes	0.51	10	$5.10
11:56:12	SELL	No	0.51	31	$15.63
11:56:09	SELL	No	0.52	159	$82.54
08:39:12	SELL	No	0.52	29	$15.08
08:22:09	SELL	Yes	0.47	107	$50.34
10:11:17	SELL	No	0.52	30	$15.60
03:47:18	SELL	Yes	0.45	196	$88.16
02:37:35	BUY	No	0.51	23	$11.73
04:09:35	SELL	No	0.4995	40	$19.98
04:09:30	BUY	Yes	0.5	82	$41.00
13:04:03	BUY	Yes	0.5199999813	19	$10.00
13:03:17	BUY	No	0.49	40	$19.60
12:59:32	BUY	Yes	0.45	5	$2.25
12:54:00	BUY	No	0.45	40	$18.00
12:48:41	BUY	No	0.4	30	$12.00
12:43:56	BUY	Yes	0.6	17	$10.00
12:20:42	SELL	Yes	0.57	3	$1.57
12:20:42	SELL	Yes	0.57	20	$11.40
12:14:21	BUY	Yes	0.8630952358	29	$25.00
12:14:21	BUY	Yes	0.4876349932	209	$102.00
18:04:41	SELL	No	0.52	10	$5.15
16:23:38	BUY	Yes	0.42	7	$2.80
16:23:38	BUY	No	0.5789210371	203	$117.45
16:23:35	BUY	No	0.57	25	$14.31