PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by December 31, 2026?

Tick
0.01
Min order
5
Fees
0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends
2027-01-01
Rewards
20 min size · 4.5¢ max spread

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.68. up 0.14 over the period, from 0.54. Range 0.43 to 0.71. 169 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.692020
0.7099119
0.883122
0.916128
0.9253181
0.9530211
0.9630241
0.9755296
0.9885381
0.99107488

Spread0.03Mid0.68

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.668383
0.6587170
0.608861,056
0.5821,058
0.33501,108
0.165001,608
0.153001,908
0.0971,914
0.085002,414
0.077503,164
0.065903,754
0.051,7505,504

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.348383
0.3587170
0.408861,056
0.4221,058
0.67501,108
0.845001,608
0.853001,908
0.9171,914
0.925002,414
0.937503,164
0.945903,754
0.951,7505,504

Spread0.03Mid0.33

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.312020
0.3099119
0.123122
0.096128
0.0853181
0.0530211
0.0430241
0.0355296
0.0285381
0.01107488

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
ammarbYes320.99
0xC42d02AFE568A863C7aa3117b90bbd2D5365Ca94-1782962565138Yes291
wizardorbYes140.12
xcaioxYes121.5
openboardYes120.86
parameter1Yes112.78
KimchiCapitalYes106.13
pootytherewardfarmerYes54
Invictus07Yes53
S888Yes50
ImSweatingYes40
spraynprayYes20
0xfec464f25Ce66AaEb9Bd4Ecb94b7184520bCCFc8-1741783184737Yes20
postmetaYes14.49
GandoronYes13.73
citcapYes11
mkmlYes9.26
Joe12344144Yes5
NoKingsFTrumpYes4.9
homakiYes3.99

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
18:56:24BUYYes0.67291$194.97
04:01:28BUYNo0.419999988118$7.76
01:55:09BUYNo0.468$3.45
16:00:45BUYNo0.4140$16.40
15:54:01BUYYes0.520$10.00
22:09:06BUYYes0.4520$9.05
21:03:16SELLYes0.4820$9.60
10:47:27BUYYes0.53999995689$5.00
03:19:37BUYYes0.512$6.00
03:12:06SELLYes0.597777777890$53.80
22:37:19BUYYes0.62999999516$10.00
16:12:45BUYYes0.72999990873$2.00
08:05:01SELLYes0.490$0.00
08:05:00BUYYes0.519610292320$10.40
08:04:58BUYYes0.509999991139$20.00
04:58:48BUYYes0.72999981021$1.00
16:20:24BUYNo0.4220$8.40
16:14:51BUYYes0.519999997958$30.00
14:55:28BUYYes0.5520$11.00
08:05:46SELLYes0.638$5.04
03:03:13BUYNo0.369999984719$7.00
19:35:25BUYNo0.355$1.75
23:04:48BUYYes0.69106$73.23
17:15:03BUYYes0.4911$5.39
23:13:58SELLYes0.1191$9.96