mkml
0xf1f92c23c6f74b6d01ded07ba3dad2d533efd09d
- Realised P&L
- $33.13
- Volume
- $582.69
- Markets traded
- 43
- Open portfolio
- $11.11
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.7%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded43
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample34 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)73.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.540 | 0.675 | $6.25 | +$1.25 |
| Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.715 | $3.64 | +$0.64 |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? · Yes | 0.810 | 0.989 | $1.22 | +$0.22 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? · No | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.595 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.00 |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.768 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
| Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.861 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? · Yes | 0.446 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.24 |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? · Yes | 0.075 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.90at 0.291Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
- +$9.75at 0.160Will Atlas have a Windows app live by December 31?
- +$7.33at 0.120Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 9?
- +$6.51at 0.129Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?
- +$4.00at 0.560Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-09 10:52 | Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.5899999725 | $3.00 |
| 09-09 10:47 | Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $5.00 |
| 07-08 18:10 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.662434987 | $5.00 |
| 07-01 05:58 | Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? | SELL | 0.98 | $2.97 |
| 07-01 05:58 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | SELL | 0.963 | $6.66 |
| 06-22 07:57 | GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5599998432 | $1.00 |
| 06-22 07:56 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | BUY | 0.4399999296 | $2.00 |
| 06-22 07:56 | Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.719999856 | $1.00 |
| 06-17 19:22 | Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8609998984 | $1.00 |
| 06-17 19:21 | GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8299999967 | $5.00 |
| 06-17 19:20 | GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.1899998784 | $1.00 |
| 06-17 19:19 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | BUY | 0.4199998236 | $1.00 |
| 06-17 19:19 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? | BUY | 0.3399999422 | $2.00 |
| 06-17 19:19 | Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? | BUY | 0.3299997822 | $1.00 |
| 06-06 11:48 | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.2889998457 | $1.00 |