PolyBot

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Traders

mkml

0xf1f92c23c6f74b6d01ded07ba3dad2d533efd09d

Realised P&L
$33.13
Volume
$582.69
Markets traded
43
Open portfolio
$11.11

Can you copy this trader?

plausibleNo blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar5.7%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
ClearMarkets traded43
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration22.4% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample34 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)73.5%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration56.3% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.5400.675$6.25+$1.25
Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027? · Yes0.5900.715$3.64+$0.64
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? · Yes0.8100.989$1.22+$0.22
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? · No0.2200.000$0.00$1.00
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? · Yes0.5950.000$0.00$7.00
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? · Yes0.7680.000$0.00$6.00
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? · Yes0.8610.000$0.00$1.00
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? · Yes0.3400.000$0.00$2.00
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? · Yes0.1900.000$0.00$1.00
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? · Yes0.4460.000$0.00$1.24
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? · Yes0.0750.000$0.00$3.50

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-09 10:52Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027?BUY0.5899999725$3.00
09-09 10:47Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by December 31, 2026?BUY0.5399999568$5.00
07-08 18:10Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?BUY0.662434987$5.00
07-01 05:58Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?SELL0.98$2.97
07-01 05:58Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?SELL0.963$6.66
06-22 07:57GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?BUY0.5599998432$1.00
06-22 07:56Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?BUY0.4399999296$2.00
06-22 07:56Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?BUY0.719999856$1.00
06-17 19:22Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?BUY0.8609998984$1.00
06-17 19:21GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?BUY0.8299999967$5.00
06-17 19:20GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?BUY0.1899998784$1.00
06-17 19:19Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?BUY0.4199998236$1.00
06-17 19:19Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?BUY0.3399999422$2.00
06-17 19:19Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?BUY0.3299997822$1.00
06-06 11:48Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?BUY0.2889998457$1.00