PolyBot

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Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.10% before 2027?

Tick
0.01
Min order
5
Fees
0.05 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.25 · takers only
Ends
2026-12-31
Resolves by
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026
Rewards
20 min size · 6.5¢ max spread

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.42. up 0.12 over the period, from 0.30. Range 0.30 to 0.53. 152 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.437070
0.44428498
0.45360858
0.4659916
0.472611,177
0.511411,318
0.53351,353
0.552331,586
0.74421,628
0.851611,789
0.867142,503
0.871232,626

Spread0.01Mid0.42

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.42212212
0.411,0851,297
0.402411,538
0.391671,704
0.38751,779
0.37821,861
0.36641,925
0.33201,945
0.32812,026
0.313902,417
0.302732,690
0.29202,710

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.58212212
0.591,0851,297
0.602411,538
0.611671,704
0.62751,779
0.63821,861
0.64641,925
0.67201,945
0.68812,026
0.693902,417
0.702732,690
0.71202,710

Spread0.01Mid0.57

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.577070
0.56428498
0.55360858
0.5459916
0.532611,177
0.491411,318
0.47351,353
0.452331,586
0.26421,628
0.151611,789
0.147142,503
0.131232,626

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
t4zuwbigfjnrsYes1,023
AlicieYes827.49
cigarettesYes755.78
GotGreenWoodYes400
timeistmoneyYes148.06
jan-delarusYes140.28
stanmktmakerYes100.15
SuperTestsYes91.05
GuyFromTinderYes69.56
financegaaaydogYes51.5
thecaricatureYes49.98
pppnnYes28.72
0x4dc0…b5b8Yes23.26
FihdrzgddYes23
0x0174…95b0Yes21.74
johncashiYes20
cx2Yes17.09
mavsgseguritasYes10
0xaF05465D8f88a8Aad0BD916d23fA781BaA8a33E2-1781769499788Yes10
0x7975…1fe1Yes1.4

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
04:32:04BUYYes0.4232$13.36
04:31:54BUYYes0.4220$8.40
18:10:25SELLNo0.5718$10.37
07:19:58SELLNo0.5618$10.20
07:18:39BUYNo0.5570$38.50
07:18:37BUYNo0.54120$64.80
23:54:15SELLNo0.5252$27.04
23:52:58SELLNo0.5320$10.60
23:52:52SELLNo0.528$4.16
23:52:52BUYNo0.5107357572140$71.36
23:00:22BUYNo0.515$7.64
22:32:40BUYNo0.5552$28.60
22:32:40BUYNo0.5599997762$1.00
22:32:39BUYNo0.538$4.24
22:32:39BUYNo0.5357$30.21
22:30:49BUYNo0.5520$11.00
22:30:49BUYNo0.5420$10.80
19:40:25BUYYes0.4611$5.10
18:59:40SELLNo0.5432$17.09
17:27:18SELLNo0.545$2.70
17:24:40SELLNo0.5535$19.25
17:18:00BUYYes0.4428$12.32
16:53:48BUYYes0.4310$4.30
16:46:00BUYYes0.4360$25.80
16:44:03BUYYes0.3525440$155.10