PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0xaF05465D8f88a8Aad0BD916d23fA781BaA8a33E2-1781769499788

0xaf05465d8f88a8aad0bd916d23fa781baa8a33e2

Realised P&L
$492.51
Volume
$68.6k
Markets traded
1,619
Open portfolio
$2.4k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded1,619
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration13.1% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration10.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? · No0.9830.972$64.28$0.74
Will Trump resign before 2027? · No0.9770.968$44.71$0.44
Fed abolished before 2027? · No0.9870.984$40.31$0.15
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? · No0.7370.832$29.11+$3.31
Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.6% and 2.0%? · No0.9740.953$13.88$0.32
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? · No0.9230.925$13.88+$0.03
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? · No0.8890.930$13.25+$0.59
Will the Democratic Party win the TN-05 House seat? · No0.8860.879$13.19$0.10
Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027? · No0.8870.855$12.82$0.49
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026? · No0.9210.885$12.35$0.50
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? · No0.8390.855$12.04+$0.23
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-07 House seat? · No0.8420.850$10.20+$0.09
Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes0.7430.675$10.13$1.02
Record crypto liquidation in 2026? · No0.9220.918$10.11$0.04
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? · No0.9370.920$10.11$0.18

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-17 21:08Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.57$2.85
09-17 07:59Will the Democrats win the Oregon governor race in 2026?BUY0.86$4.30
09-17 04:47Will the Republicans win the Oregon governor race in 2026?BUY0.86$4.30
09-16 07:03Will October be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?BUY0.95$4.75
09-16 03:49Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?BUY0.88$4.40
09-15 14:35Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?SELL0.86$4.30
09-14 14:19Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?SELL0.81$4.05
09-13 22:19Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?BUY0.69$3.45
09-13 20:39Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?BUY0.76$3.80
09-13 18:11Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?BUY0.92$4.60
09-12 23:31Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?BUY0.83$4.15
09-12 15:51Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?BUY0.76$3.80
09-12 06:29Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?BUY0.92$4.60
09-11 12:31Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.21$1.05
09-11 12:03Fed rate hike in 2026?BUY0.31$1.55