Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

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Tick: 0.001
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2026-09-30
Resolves by: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Rewards: 20 min size · 4.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.096. up 0.037 over the period, from 0.059. Range 0.033 to 0.097. 169 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.100	10	10
0.101	50	60
0.104	39	99
0.105	180	279
0.106	45	324
0.107	20	344
0.108	312	657
0.112	225	882
0.114	330	1,212
0.116	22	1,234
0.117	33	1,266
0.120	182	1,448

Spread0.008Mid0.096

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.092	74	74
0.091	840	914
0.089	20	934
0.088	20	954
0.081	62	1,016
0.080	248	1,264
0.077	12	1,276
0.076	220	1,496
0.074	210	1,706
0.073	700	2,406
0.063	369	2,775
0.062	1,230	4,006

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.908	74	74
0.909	840	914
0.911	20	934
0.912	20	954
0.919	62	1,016
0.920	248	1,264
0.923	12	1,276
0.924	220	1,496
0.926	210	1,706
0.927	700	2,406
0.937	369	2,775
0.938	1,230	4,006

Spread0.008Mid0.904

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.900	10	10
0.899	50	60
0.896	39	99
0.895	180	279
0.894	45	324
0.893	20	344
0.892	312	657
0.888	225	882
0.886	330	1,212
0.884	22	1,234
0.883	33	1,266
0.880	182	1,448

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
0xa1b899d1fcB53061B06BF01FE0972B5f6eBD43B0-1766077798948	Yes	1,291.24
Seanlaw611	Yes	887.58
balthazar	Yes	700
0xf6C4D6B5b71Ec31daD97CF20279C91FAE424eF8E-1767886056782	Yes	543.48
betmandown	Yes	499.99
deaiae	Yes	499.99
AlwaysTimed	Yes	498.46
Splottz	Yes	399.98
arbokbro	Yes	299.8
Zachfabi	Yes	250
otakakot	Yes	228.79
rocky42011	Yes	171.95
0xC0E3D7704335510e2f5214C01ebA48641C3B9D82-1763313089432	Yes	163.23
hekutor	Yes	135.99
CheChe-0	Yes	134.05
tpottrader	Yes	120.97
bmtr	Yes	111.93
naggingbets	Yes	110
0xfAe64c40781D52664265C24a0Ea6262c35434F84-1761237990786	Yes	100
areteforecast	Yes	72.57

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
22:33:12	SELL	No	0.895	84	$75.51
22:33:09	SELL	No	0.898	10	$8.98
22:33:07	SELL	No	0.899	75	$67.34
22:32:42	BUY	Yes	0.0919999985	543	$50.00
13:46:37	BUY	Yes	0.09	20	$1.80
13:29:12	SELL	Yes	0.0741092044	19	$1.43
13:12:03	SELL	Yes	0.075	27	$2.00
00:31:11	SELL	Yes	0.069	269	$18.55
00:28:27	BUY	Yes	0.0756154106	269	$20.33
00:20:32	SELL	Yes	0.0702182362	80	$5.64
22:46:59	SELL	Yes	0.07	0	$0.01
18:15:51	BUY	No	0.937	6	$5.62
16:45:14	BUY	Yes	0.071713141	139	$10.00
16:04:47	BUY	Yes	0.0734911072	136	$10.00
15:44:41	BUY	Yes	0.053	50	$2.65
15:44:29	BUY	No	0.948	60	$56.88
15:44:29	BUY	Yes	0.052	40	$2.08
14:20:27	BUY	Yes	0.0519999513	19	$1.00
13:44:12	BUY	Yes	0.051999976	38	$2.00
12:49:33	SELL	Yes	0.046	7	$0.32
12:48:18	SELL	Yes	0.046	106	$4.86
12:12:47	SELL	Yes	0.048	4	$0.19
12:08:33	BUY	No	0.9518390169	65	$61.96
12:08:32	BUY	No	0.948	65	$61.62
12:02:59	SELL	Yes	0.052	1	$0.05