Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

Tick: 0.001
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2026-09-30
Resolves by: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.015. up 0.008 over the period, from 0.006. Range 0.003 to 0.022. 169 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.016	460	460
0.017	1,585	2,045
0.018	1,500	3,545
0.020	254	3,799
0.021	1,347	5,146
0.023	100	5,246
0.029	832	6,077
0.030	45	6,122
0.031	100	6,222
0.033	50	6,272
0.034	192	6,464
0.036	50	6,514

Spread0.003Mid0.014

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.013	2	2
0.009	700	702
0.008	2,750	3,452
0.007	8,600	12,052
0.005	2,000	14,052
0.004	5,000	19,052
0.003	4,084	23,136
0.002	19,336	42,472
0.001	87,843	130,315

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.987	2	2
0.991	700	702
0.992	2,750	3,452
0.993	8,600	12,052
0.995	2,000	14,052
0.996	5,000	19,052
0.997	4,084	23,136
0.998	19,336	42,472
0.999	87,843	130,315

Spread0.003Mid0.986

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.984	460	460
0.983	1,585	2,045
0.982	1,500	3,545
0.980	254	3,799
0.979	1,347	5,146
0.977	100	5,246
0.971	832	6,077
0.970	45	6,122
0.969	100	6,222
0.967	50	6,272
0.966	192	6,464
0.964	50	6,514

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
NorthStar6	Yes	19,744.82
pullthetrigger	Yes	19,332.27
euro-catcher	Yes	10,718
0xcdbb…0bf5	Yes	10,090.89
DualDelta	Yes	9,999.95
M8880	Yes	6,962.92
quizzy	Yes	5,719.07
anoin123	Yes	5,544
0x14Ec8218E788d5F7E8c90437C0bdeF1568B6C745-1776542696682	Yes	5,287.64
iterintellectus	Yes	4,929.81
tigertest1	Yes	4,905.47
p0099	Yes	4,736.04
jayaradha	Yes	4,582.95
AMAM13	Yes	4,310.91
themonkeyonyourback	Yes	4,064.56
0xIhor	Yes	3,999.96
Ac2phan	Yes	3,449.89
konsomida	Yes	3,199.99
0x8673…59a5	Yes	3,187.13
polymorpher-accumulator	Yes	2,999.97

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
14:30:12	SELL	Yes	0.013	3	$0.03
14:30:12	SELL	Yes	0.013	3	$0.03
14:30:09	BUY	Yes	0.0145107003	3,834	$55.64
14:01:03	BUY	No	0.987	11	$10.59
13:56:09	BUY	No	0.987	12	$11.56
13:49:25	BUY	No	0.987	15	$15.02
13:44:13	BUY	No	0.987	2	$1.64
13:44:13	BUY	No	0.987	415	$409.61
13:43:46	BUY	No	0.99	134	$132.69
13:43:42	BUY	No	0.989764	80	$79.18
13:43:31	BUY	Yes	0.0140599046	2,134	$30.00
12:52:46	BUY	Yes	0.0118811881	84	$1.00
12:41:09	BUY	No	0.99	89	$88.11
12:41:09	BUY	No	0.99	166	$164.34
12:41:07	BUY	No	0.99	332	$328.58
12:41:07	BUY	No	0.99	664	$657.16
12:41:07	BUY	No	0.99	83	$82.49
12:41:07	BUY	No	0.99	665	$658.35
12:40:34	BUY	Yes	0.0107582513	930	$10.00
11:55:22	BUY	No	0.995	1	$1.10
11:25:15	BUY	No	0.995	1	$1.20
10:53:18	BUY	Yes	0.0225185335	13,322	$300.00
10:40:57	SELL	Yes	0.003	5	$0.02
10:40:54	BUY	Yes	0.005	600	$3.00
09:18:09	BUY	No	0.996486	160	$159.44