PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

DualDelta

0x15433540ca3794108e602bfd353189519af8baaf

Realised P&L
$42.4k
Volume
$2.12M
Markets traded
312
Open portfolio
$19.0k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar2.0%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded312
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration45.8% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)18.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration23.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? · Yes0.8610.815$4.4k$253.39
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? · Yes0.2010.115$2.9k$2.1k
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? · No0.1880.530$2.0k+$1.3k
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? · No0.3920.435$1.5k+$148.03
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0880.146$1.0k+$402.32
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2980.485$956.24+$369.20
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? · Yes0.2370.175$782.26$277.26
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1100.085$765.00$225.00
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? · Yes0.5130.175$624.72$1.2k
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes0.0670.041$572.72$370.21
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? · No0.0700.280$519.09+$389.32
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? · Yes0.1550.080$487.70$457.51
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? · Yes0.1330.080$379.16$252.39
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? · Yes0.0900.042$342.30$401.93
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? · Yes0.0880.018$271.22$1.1k

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-30 00:20Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?SELL0.3600010663$7.8k
07-30 00:19Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?SELL0.82$509.79
07-30 00:19Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?SELL0.42346623$371.11
07-30 00:18Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?SELL0.08$29.84
07-30 00:18Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?SELL0.77$261.45
07-30 00:17Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?SELL0.11$1.4k
07-27 23:09Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?BUY0.17$364.80
07-27 23:08Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?SELL0.18$333.41
07-27 23:08Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?SELL0.18$1.0k
07-14 23:36Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.581$1.5k
07-14 23:36Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.581$508.37
07-09 23:33President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?BUY0.1$500.00
07-09 23:31Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI?BUY0.2944459279$110.27
07-09 23:28Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?BUY0.11$990.00
07-09 23:23Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?BUY0.6768929005$662.93